Statistics Canada will release its Labour Force Survey on Friday, and markets are bracing for quite a steady print. The Unemployment Rate is expected to remain at 6.7% in April, while the Employment Change is forecast to increase by 15K following a 14.1K gain in the previous month.
Despite the tone of the report, the bar for a change of direction by the Bank of Canada (BoC) should remain pretty high. Indeed, the central bank is expected to maintain its steady hand at its June 10 gathering, following four consecutive “on hold” decisions.
At its latest event, the BoC signalled an upbeat medium-term outlook for economic growth while revising inflation higher for the current year. In addition, Governor Tiff Macklem delivered a cautious message at his press conference, keeping the data-dependent stance well in place while leaving the door open to higher rates in case energy prices remain elevated.
So far, market participants expect around 45 basis points of tightening by the bank by year-end.
What can we expect from the next Canadian Unemployment Rate print?
Consensus among analysts sees Canada’s Unemployment Rate at 6.7% last month. Additionally, investors forecast the economy will add around 15K jobs in April, a tad higher than March’s 14.1K gain. It is worth recalling that Average Hourly Wages rose at an annualised 5.1% in March (from 4.9%), pointing to sticky wage inflation.
When is the Canada Unemployment Rate released, and how could it affect USD/CAD?
All eyes in Canada will be on Friday’s release of the jobs report, due at 12:30 GMT. A stronger print could give the Canadian Dollar (CAD) a quick lift, but don’t expect fireworks.
USD/CAD has been on a steady uptrend this week, almost entirely to the tune of developments from the Middle East and dynamics around the US Dollar (USD).
Pablo Piovano, Senior Analyst at FXStreet, points out that USD/CAD has been edging higher in the last few days, reclaiming the 1.3600 barrier and approaching 1.3650. Further up comes the weekly top at 1.3714 (April 24), an area reinforced by the provisional 55-day and 100-day SMAs around 1.3720. Further north emerges the always relevant 200-day SMA near 1.3815.
On the flip side, he highlights initial support at the May floor of 1.3549 (May 1), seconded by the March base at 1.3525 (March 9), the February valley at 1.3504 (February 11) and the 2026 bottom at 1.3481 (January 30).
“Momentum favours extra declines,” he adds, noting that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near 43 and the Average Directional Index (ADX) just over 24 suggests the underlying trend appears to be gathering traction.
Economic Indicator
Net Change in Employment
The Net Change in Employment released by Statistics Canada is a measure of the change in the number of people in employment in Canada. Generally speaking, a rise in this indicator has positive implications for consumer spending and indicates economic growth. Therefore, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Canadian Dollar (CAD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
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Last release:
Fri Apr 10, 2026 12:30
Frequency:
Monthly
Actual:
14.1K
Consensus:
15K
Previous:
-83.9K
Source:
Statistics Canada
Canadian Dollar FAQs
The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
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