- Vice President Harris and former President Trump remain locked in a tight contest ahead of November.
- Harris leads in two new national polls, while both candidates were tied in a third survey.
- Both candidates continue to fight for supremacy on the economy, which is the top issue for voters.
With less than a month before the November general election, Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are barnstorming the major swing states as they aim to rev up their respective bases and sway undecided voters.
The presidential election will be decided in battlegrounds like Arizona, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, but national polls can also point to larger electoral trends.
One thing is certain: The race remains incredibly close.
Of the three major national polls released on Sunday, Harris retained an edge in two surveys while both candidates were tied in another.
In the latest CBS News/YouGov poll, Harris had a three-point lead over Trump (51% to 48%) among likely voters. And Harris also led in a new ABC News/Ipsos poll by two points (50% to 48%) among likely voters.
But Harris and Trump were tied in the latest NBC News survey (48% to 48%) among registered voters, with the former president erasing a five-point lead for the vice president last month.
What do these results say about where the race is headed?
The economy remains key
One constant in the presidential race is the importance of economic issues in voters’ minds.
While the unemployment rate is significantly lower than four years ago, inflation has been a recurring issue for Americans.
The economy has consistently been one of Trump’s strongest issues. Had President Joe Biden remained the Democratic nominee, the former president’s advantage on the issue might have been too much for Biden to overcome in states like Arizona and Nevada.
But after Biden stepped aside as the presumptive nominee in July, Harris’ entry into the race upended the election and allowed Democrats to reframe their economic message independent of the president.
In several swing-state polls, Harris has had some success in pulling closer to Trump on the economy.
However, the three polls showed that Trump retained an economic advantage.
In the NBC poll, Trump had an eleven-point lead over Harris (50% to 39%) on which candidate would best handle inflation and cost of living issues.
Meanwhile, respondents in the ABC poll gave Trump an eight-point edge on the economy (46% to 38%) and a seven-point lead on tackling inflation (44% to 37%). However, in the ABC poll, Harris had a five-point advantage (42% to 37%) over Trump regarding which candidate would look out for middle-class Americans.
In the CBS poll, though, 67% of respondents said that prices on items they purchase have increased in recent months, while only 6% said that prices have declined. But Trump has zeroed in on this issue throughout his campaign.
Both candidates — especially Harris — will continue emphasizing economic matters in the weeks ahead.
Who’s the change candidate?
Despite having already served as president, Trump is running as a change candidate — touting conservative stances that would be a stark reversal from those of the Biden administration on issues ranging from immigration to judicial appointments.
Harris is also running as a change candidate. She’s been more forceful than Biden in articulating her views on issues like reproductive rights and border security.
On most issues, Trump has sought to tie Harris to Biden at every turn.
But so far, she has retained an edge — albeit narrow — on which candidate would represent change.
In the NBC News poll, Harris had a five-point lead over Trump on which candidate represented change (45% to 40%). The figure marks a small decline from her nine-point edge in September (47% to 38%).
With many voters seeking a candidate who’ll shake things up from the Biden years, it’s significant that Harris retains an advantage on the issue even though her overall lead in the NBC poll slipped. For many voters — especially young voters concerned over the economy and the conflict in Gaza — the “change” factor remains critical.
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