Walmart’s reign as America’s grocery king is showing no sign of slowing down.
For the third year running, more than one in five US grocery dollars is being spent at Walmart, according to consumer analytics firm Numerator.
And that share (21.2% to be exact) represents spending only at the Walmart US banner. When taking the additional 4% from company’s warehouse chain Sam’s Club into account, a Walmart overall rakes in a whopping one in four dollars spent on groceries in the US.
That makes Walmart US more than twice as large as nearest rival Kroger. In fact, it would take the four largest pure-play grocery chains combined — Kroger, Albertsons, Publix, and Ahold Delhaize — to finally outgun the behemoth of Bentonville.
Big as Walmart is, it doesn’t appear to be the brand that grocery chains appear to be losing sales to. It’s Costco.
The Issaquah, Washington-based wholesale club has been snapping up more grocery spending since at least 2019, and has managed to improve its market share by nearly a percentage point in the past two years, from 7.6% in 2023 to 8.5% now. That’s no small feat in the extremely competitive and famously low-margin grocery industry.
Costco’s focus on a limited selection of bulk products means it probably won’t ever take up all of a household’s grocery spending, but it is positioned to take more of it.
The share gains for Walmart and Costco alike in recent years come as US shoppers look for more ways to get the most out of their household budgets.
Both companies have seen transactions and sales tick up in the face of economic uncertainty, while competitors are having a harder time hitting their numbers.
Each retailer also does robust business selling a lot more than just food, and those general merchandise sales often bring higher profits than groceries do. That mix can help offset lower markups on the everyday essential foods and sundries that keep shoppers coming in each week.
At any rate, the numbers from Numerator show consistent consumer shift toward these banners, which have an established reputation for value. Walmart, Sam’s Club, and Costco now collectively account for more than a third, or 33.7%, of US grocery spending, compared with 30.1% five years ago, per Numerator.
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