There’s more troubling news for the white-collar job market: wage growth is falling short of inflation.
A Bankrate analysis used employment cost index and consumer price index data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics to look at how the gap between wage and salary growth and inflation has changed since 2021. The difference allowed Bankrate to identify the industries with better worker bargaining power.
Financial activities and professional and business services fell on the wrong side of that divide. Wage growth falling behind inflation in those sectors adds to the bleak picture of the white-collar labor market.
Sarah Foster, an economic analyst at Bankrate, told Business Insider the white-collar job market is frozen, affecting both newer and experienced job seekers. It’s tough for new entrants to get a job, including recent tech graduates who face more competition but fewer opportunities. Experienced workers can also have a harder time finding a more advanced role or getting promoted.
“It results in everybody just kind of being in stasis,” Foster said.
Healthcare and hospitality workers have more purchasing power
On the other side of the coin, some sectors dominated by in-person service work that were in high demand after the pandemic recession have had more robust wage gains.
Foster said it’s no coincidence that wage growth outpaced inflation in the healthcare and social assistance industry and other areas where job seekers have been sought after. From May to July, job growth averaged about 68,000 in healthcare and social assistance, about double the average gain for nonfarm payrolls.
“It really depends on how much demand there is for the good or the product or the service that you’re offering,” she said about bargaining power. “For workers, that’s your labor.”
Similarly, leisure and hospitality, which had the biggest positive gap between wages and inflation among the major sectors Bankrate analyzed, was a key driver of employment growth in the years after the economy reopened. Food services and accommodation, part of leisure and hospitality, had a positive gap of about 5 percentage points.
Employers in leisure and hospitality, desperate to restaff after the pandemic-era closures, incentivized job seekers with lavish signing bonuses and benefits.
“Because of how big those wage increases were as the economy reopened from the pandemic, that gave these workers a leg up to help them catch back up to prices,” Foster said.
Despite the strong wage growth in that sector, pay tends to be low. Foster said people in lesiure and hospitality and retail trade could still have felt inflation’s effects, as they had less wiggle room in their budgets than those in higher-paying, white-collar fields.
“Just because your wage actually kept up with inflation doesn’t always mean that you’re better off,” Foster said.
How to get a raise
With fewer opportunities in white-collar industries and the US labor market as a whole, Foster said the best way to get a raise could be staying in your position and confidently talking to your boss about how you bring value to your employer. That could be done at your annual review or earlier.
Jenny Wood, author of the career and advice newsletter Big Small Things, previously told Business Insider that instead of demanding a raise, you could ask your boss what needs to be demonstrated for stakeholders to feel comfortable bumping your pay.
If it’s too late for 2025, you can start a conversation for 2026. Wood suggested workers ask, “How else can I show my impact so that I am an easy candidate for a raise next year?”
However, raises for landing a new position might not be as strong as they were in the past. Median wage growth data tracked by the Atlanta Fed showed that the gap between job stayers and job switchers has narrowed.
“Those job gains of job switching, we can’t really rely on anymore,” Foster said.
How did you get a raise? Are you feeling stuck in your job, or have you made a career pivot? Share your story with this reporter at [email protected].
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