- The Indian Rupee slides to an all-time low of around 88.50 against the US Dollar at open on Monday.
- India’s Q2 GDP surprisingly grew at a robust pace of 7.8%.
- The US Dollar declines amid uncertainty ahead of US labor market data.
The Indian Rupee (INR) posts a fresh all-time lows around 88.50 against the US Dollar (USD) at the start of the week. The USD/INR pair trades firmly as the imposition of higher tariffs by the United States (US) on India, and the consistent outflow of foreign funds from Indian stock markets, have battered the Indian Rupee.
In August, Washington raised tariffs on imports from New Delhi to 50% from 25% for buying Oil from Russia, citing that Indian money is funding Moscow’s war in Ukraine. The imposition of higher duties on India by the US has dampened the competitiveness of products made by Indian export-oriented sectors.
On Friday, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) sold a massive amount of Rs. 8,312.66 crores worth of equities in Indian equity markets. Cumulatively, FIIs have pared stake worth Rs. 94,569.6 crores in July and August, after buying Rs. 24,011.43 crores worth of Indian equity in the March-June period of the year.
Meanwhile, the Indian Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data has come in surprisingly stronger. The data showed on Friday that the economy grew at an annualized rate of 7.8%, faster than the 7.4% increase seen in the first quarter of the year. Economists expected the US GDP growth to come in at 6.6%.
On the global front, the comments from Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President XI Jinping after a meeting at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit over the weekend indicate signs of improving relations between both nations. We are committed to progressing our relations based on mutual respect, trust, and sensitivities,” Modi said, Reuters reported.
The table below shows the percentage change of Indian Rupee (INR) against listed major currencies today. Indian Rupee was the weakest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | INR | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.18% | -0.21% | 0.10% | 0.12% | 0.07% | 0.10% | 0.01% | |
| EUR | 0.18% | -0.04% | 0.22% | 0.31% | 0.26% | 0.06% | 0.20% | |
| GBP | 0.21% | 0.04% | 0.14% | 0.34% | 0.29% | 0.27% | 0.28% | |
| JPY | -0.10% | -0.22% | -0.14% | 0.09% | -0.01% | 0.35% | -0.05% | |
| CAD | -0.12% | -0.31% | -0.34% | -0.09% | -0.04% | 0.33% | -0.06% | |
| AUD | -0.07% | -0.26% | -0.29% | 0.00% | 0.04% | 0.31% | -0.01% | |
| INR | -0.10% | -0.06% | -0.27% | -0.35% | -0.33% | -0.31% | -0.51% | |
| CHF | -0.01% | -0.20% | -0.28% | 0.05% | 0.06% | 0.01% | 0.51% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Indian Rupee from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent INR (base)/USD (quote).
Daily digest market movers: Fed seems to cut interest rates this month
- The USD/INR pair continues to trade higher even as the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, extends its losing streak for the fifth trading day amid a holiday in the US on Monday on account of Labor Day. At the time of writing, the USD Index trades close to its monthly low of around 97.70.
- The Greenback faces selling pressure as investors turn cautious, with an array of US labor market-related indicators scheduled to be released this week. Investors will pay close attention to job-related data as it significantly influenced market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook in early August.
- The speculation for the Fed to cut interest rates in the September policy meeting intensified after the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for July showed a downward revision in the May and June employment numbers.
- Currently, the CME FedWatch tool shows that there is an 87.6% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates in the policy meeting this month.
- Meanwhile, a slew of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members, including Chair Jerome Powell, have also become concerned regarding an increase in downside labor market risks.
- Another reason behind weakness in the US Dollar is growing concerns over the credibility of US President Donald Trump’s economic policies, and a threat to theFed’s independence.
- On Friday, a panel of judges in Washington stated a verdict against Trump’s tariff agenda, calling them “illegal” and accusing him of wrongfully invoking emergency law. The event has raised concerns over the future of Trump’s international policies. However, market experts believe that Trump will find a way to keep tariffs in place. I doubt it will be market-moving if tariffs are going to stay in place, and even if they are ruled to be illegal, I think Trump will find another legal avenue to implement the tariffs,” analysts at Commonwealth Bank of Australia said.
- Last week, the lawsuit filed by Fed Governor Lisa Cook against her termination by US President Trump over mortgage allegations also went into court. Market experts view the event as a serious damage to the Fed’s independence.
Technical Analysis: USD/INR holds key 20-day EMA
USD/INR refereshes all-time highs around 88.50 on Monday. The near-term trend of the pair remains bullish as it holds above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades near 87.60.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stabilizes above 60.00, suggesting that a fresh bullish momentum has come into effect.
Looking down, the 20-day will act as key support for the major. On the upside, the pair has entered uncharted territory. The round figure of 89.00 would be the key hurdle for the pair.
Economic Indicator
Nonfarm Payrolls
The Nonfarm Payrolls release presents the number of new jobs created in the US during the previous month in all non-agricultural businesses; it is released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The monthly changes in payrolls can be extremely volatile. The number is also subject to strong reviews, which can also trigger volatility in the Forex board. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish, although previous months’ reviews and the Unemployment Rate are as relevant as the headline figure. The market’s reaction, therefore, depends on how the market assesses all the data contained in the BLS report as a whole.
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