- The US Dollar trades broadly stable in very calm holiday trading
- Monthly Industrial Production in Japan fell by 2.3%, less than the expected 3.5%, while big Chinese manufacturers also reported falling profits.
- The US Dollar Index (DXY) slides below 108.00, though remains close to a two-year high.
The US Dollar (USD) is trading a touch softer this Friday, with the DXY index unable to hold position above 108.00, as markets remain cautious and trading desks are short-staffed due to the Christmas holiday. The Dollar failed to react to more action in Asian markets, with data signaling further contraction in Japan’s Industrial Production and Chinese industrial companies reporting lower profits.
The US economic calendar is very light on Friday, with the preliminary Goods Trade Balance and the Wholesale Inventories data. Not much movement is expected from these data points. So a rather steady trading session is expected.
Daily digest market movers: Wider deficit
- Both data points from the US for this Friday will be released:
- The November Goods Trade Balance saw a widening deficit of 102.9 billion USD against the previous 98.7 billion USD deficit and beating the 100.8 billion USD estimate.
- November Wholesale Inventories shrunk by 0.2% against the previous 0.2% and concensus estimate.
- Equities trade mixed on Friday, with all US equity futures trading in the red before the opening bell.
- The CME FedWatch Tool for the first Fed meeting of 2025 on January 29 sees an 89.3% chance for a stable policy rate against a small 10.7% chance for a 25 basis points rate cut.
- The US 10-year benchmark rate trades at 4.59%, not far from this week’s high at 4.64%.
US Dollar Index Technical Analysis: Settle down and don’t get your hopes up
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is not expected to attack any firm levels this Friday given the low liquidity and only a handful of market participants present between Christmas and New Year. Any big movements aren’t expected unless an outside event takes place on the geopolitical front. It looks like the DXY will head into New Year’s Eve trading just above 108.00.
On the upside, a trend line originating from December 28, 2023, is acting as a moving cap. The next firm resistance comes in at 109.29, which was the peak of July 14, 2022, and has a good track record as a pivotal level. Once that level is surpassed, the 110.00 round level comes into play.
The first downside barrier comes in at 107.35, which has now turned from resistance into support. The second level that might be able to halt any selling pressure is 106.52. From there, even 105.53 could come under consideration while the 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 105.83 is making its way up to that level.
US Dollar Index: Daily Chart
Risk sentiment FAQs
In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off” refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.
Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.
The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.
The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
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