- America’s East Asian allies are closely watching Trump’s approach to Europe and Ukraine.
- Some are readying lucrative deals to try to keep him onside.
- At the same time, they’re also looking to reduce their own reliance on the US.
Countries in Asia have long been dependent on US military support and weaponry to deter aggression from the likes of China and North Korea.
Now they’re watching the rift grow between the US and long-standing allies in Europe over Ukraine, and some are planning lucrative economic deals to curry favor with President Donald Trump.
Trump pressures Ukraine
“The transactional nature of Trump’s foreign policy means that the East Asian allies are publicly contemplating how to maintain US involvement and protection against Chinese and North Korean threats,” Robert Dover, a professor of Intelligence and International Security at the UK’s University of Hull, told Business Insider.
Jeremy Chan, a senior analyst on the China and Northeast Asia team at Eurasia Group, said that “there is growing concern among US allies in the Indo-Pacific region.“
He said this concern is directly related to events in and around Ukraine.
Support for Ukraine has wavered under Trump. To put pressure on the country to reach a cease-fire deal with Russia, the US suspended US military aid and intelligence sharing to Ukraine, before reinstating them after Kyiv agreed to a 30-day US-backed proposal.
There’s also continued discussion over a deal that would give the US access to Ukrainian mineral reserves.
Trump told reporters over the weekend that he planned to speak directly with Russia’s leader, Vladimir Putin, on Tuesday about ending the war.
Trump’s retraction of US support for Ukraine placed its relationship with its European allies under strain, with some boosting their defense spending amid concerns US security guarantees can no longer be counted on.
Meanwhile, US allies in Asia seem to be drawing up their own version of Ukraine’s minerals deal in a bid to shore up US military support. They’re also urgently making contingency plans should the US abandon its commitments.
Earlier this month, Taiwan’s semiconductor giant TSMC announced a $100 billion investment in building five plants in the US, in line with Trump’s drive to boost US manufacturing.
Japan has pledged to invest $1 trillion in US industries, including defense, AI, and energy, while Seoul is also pledging huge investments in the US economy.
“Tokyo and Seoul will also likely increase financial support for US troops in their countries and raise defense spending to preempt future demands from Trump,” Chan said.
While both Japan and South Korea have boosted their military spending in recent years, and Australia has sought to strengthen military ties with regional allies, efforts have taken on a new urgency.
The scale of the TSMC deal has drawn criticism in Taiwan, with former President Ma Ying-jeou denouncing it and accusing the government of selling the company to Trump as a “protection fee.”
“This is a major national security crisis,” Ma said on Facebook, shortly after the deal was finalized.
He said it will have “a significant negative impact on people’s confidence, cross-strait relations and Taiwan’s future geopolitical position.”
The China threat
Trump has refused to commit to helping defend Taiwan, even as China ramps up its threats to seize control of the island.
At a press briefing earlier this month, China’s defense ministry spokesperson, Wu Qian, warned Taiwan that “we will come and get you, sooner or later.”
Brig. Gen. Anthony J. Mastalir, the commander of US Space Forces Indo-Pacific, said last week that China’s military exercises near Taiwan had become so sophisticated it was becoming “difficult to discern an exercise from an invasion.”
But Trump officials have justified their decision to step back from their European commitments by saying the US needs to refocus on the threat posed by China. There also appears to be no groundswell in the Trump administration to scale back its military presence in East Asia.
“Whereas Trump expects European countries to increase defense spending and take on the primary burden for defending their continent from Russian aggression, he does not appear to hold the same expectations for US allies in Asia,” Chan said.
Even so, with cracks showing in the US-European alliance that would have been unthinkable a decade ago, countries on the other side of the world are looking ahead.
Japan, which has had a pacifist constitution since World War II, is seeking more military independence, while Australia is discussing new security pacts with its regional allies.
Dover said that the US’s transactional approach could ultimately free some of its traditional allies to “remake trading routes and then politics.”
It could also leave them contemplating other forms of defense.
Japanese and South Korean leaders have, in recent years, called for regional allies to consider developing nuclear weapons in response to escalating threats.
Chan said South Korea, and potentially Japan and Taiwan, could “inch toward developing their own nuclear deterrents if Trump signals a weakening of US security support.”
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