As the stock market was going through a series of sharp declines and market uncertainty, I always recommend that you out at longer-term data. In my analytical routine, I start each weekend by looking at the weekly charts before I even look at the daily charts. Often the weekly charts are weak enough so I will not even look at the daily charts.
Each month I look at the monthly charts and technical studies to see if there are any changes from the prior month. This includes not only a change in the technical studies but also where there has been a move above or below a key level of support or resistance.
In my experience using different methodologies to determine support or resistance you can often zone in on the most important levels. These methods include chart analysis, moving averages, Fibonacci analysis, starc bands, and pivot analysis.
In past articles, I have pointed out that one of the lesser-used methods is pivot analysis. The results from yearly, quarterly, and monthly pivot analyses often identify support and resistance levels that are not easily identified by other methods of analysis.
In basic pivot analysis, a stock, market average, or ETF is positive if it is trading above its pivot level. In a positive-trending market, the next level to watch is the first resistance level above the pivot or R1. Conversely, if a market is below its pivot then the focus should be on the first support level below the pivot or S1.
In February I discussed yearly pivots and suggested that they be used to determine which ETFs might be the new leaders once the market correction was over. To monitor the trend I look for whether a market average or ETF has a weekly close above or below the yearly pivot. A close above indicates a positive trend but depending on the market outlook I may wait for the 2nd weekly close to confirm the signal.
As of the end of February, four of the selected ETFs Technology Select (XLK), Consumer Discretionary (XLY), the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) and iShares Russell 2000 (IWM) were above their yearly pivots. As the market declined in March their status changed.
This weekly chart of the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) goes back to 2022 and has the yearly pivot (solid purple) as well as the lighter R1 and R2 above the pivot. The S1 and S2 are included below the pivot. In January 2023 QQQ rallied up to test the yearly pivot at $302.07 but did not close above it.
On March 20th QQQ closed at $306.95 and well above the pivot. The R1 at $354.09 was reached in July which was derived from the yearly price ranges in 2022. Six weeks later QQQ dropped to a low of $281.01 and then closed at $301.05. The R1 at $354.07 was exceeded in July 2023 as QQQ had a high of$383.59.
The correction ended in October 2023 and QQQ started 2024 by opening at $396.98 which was well above the 2024 pivot at $357.87. The July high was $501.26 which just fell short of the R2 at $510.90. The R2 was exceeded in December with a high of $537.48.
On the first day of 2025 QQQ opened at $512.59 and then closed the week at $517.81 which was above the 2025 pivot at $487.57. Then on March 10th QQQ closed at $478.95 so the trend based on the yearly pivot analysis turned negative, point 2. QQQ surged two weeks later to a high of $493.62 but then closed back below the pivot.
The eventual low of $402.39 was well below the S1 at $427.66. Then on April 28th QQQ closed at $488.83 so the yearly trend turned back to positive. This was confirmed the next week as QQQ had a high this past week of $519.38. On a move above the early 2025 high at $540.01, the R1 at $572.72 is the next target.
The current table has prices taken just before the close on May 30th as those ETFs highlighted in pink are still below their yearly pivots. The other ETFs are positive and will stay positive as long as they do not have a weekly close below their yearly pivots.
In addition, I have included the current monthly and weekly DTS signals from the T&J Watchlists. The DTS was created by my colleague Jerry A, and their multiple time frame analysis is quite helpful. There were new monthly positive DTS signals for QQQ and XLK as the WKS is also positive.
The monthly DTS are still negative for SPY, XLY, XLV, XOP, XLE, and XLB. This week there were new negative weekly DTS for XLV and XLE. For the market tracking ETFs, like SPY and QQQ, the positions I recommend are determined by my analysis of the advance/decline lines.
TThe daily A/D lines had broken out to the upside by April 29 (see chart) as they had moved above their EMAs. The NYSE Composite was up 1.3% this week which is a solid gain amid more tariff distractions and earnings from the market-leading Nvidea (NVDA). It was lower Friday over China news but up 1.9% for the week.
The NYSE dropped briefly below its yearly S1 before closing back above its yearly pivot on April 21st. The S&P 500 A/D line held above its weekly WMA during the market decline and one week after the close above the yearly pivot the A/D line overcame the resistance (line b) and then made an all-time high. This projected a new high for the S&P 500.
Just two weeks later the NYSE All A/D line also made a new high as it started to lead the NYSE higher. This favors a move above the resistance at line a, with the next upside target at 20,903 and the R1.
It is important to remember that the yearly pivot data stays the same for the entire year. If these ETFs should correct as we head into the summer the yearly pivots should act as support. New monthly pivots are in effect on Monday so on new positions use them as well as the S1 and R1 levels to manage your trades. If you want to learn more about yearly pivots this link may be helpful.
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