CrowdStrike (NASDAQ:CRWD) is set to announce its earnings on Tuesday, June 3, 2025. For traders focusing on events, grasping the stock’s historical behavior around earnings announcements can provide valuable insights. Over the last five years, CrowdStrike’s shares have exhibited a pattern of positive one-day returns following earnings announcements in 55% of cases. The median positive return on these days was 9.3%, with the highest single-day gain reaching 13.6%.
While the actual outcomes relative to consensus and expectations will significantly impact the stock’s trajectory, historical trends can give traders an advantage. Traders may contemplate two primary strategies:
- Pre-earnings positioning: You could utilize these historical probabilities to guide your trading decisions prior to the earnings announcement.
- Post-earnings positioning: Alternatively, you could evaluate the connection between immediate and medium-term returns after the earnings are disclosed to shape your trading approach.
Analysts expect CrowdStrike to report earnings of $0.66 per share on revenue of $1.11 billion. This compares to the same quarter last year, when the company disclosed earnings of $0.93 per share on revenue of $921 million.
From a fundamental standpoint, CrowdStrike currently holds a market capitalization of $117 billion. Over the previous twelve months, the company realized $4.0 billion in revenue. Nonetheless, it reported operational losses, with -$120 million in operating losses and a net income of -$19 million.
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CrowdStrike’s Historical Odds of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Here are some insights regarding one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the past five years, with 11 positive and 9 negative one-day (1D) returns noted. In summary, positive 1D returns occurred approximately 55% of the time.
- However, this percentage drops to 50% if we analyze data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- The median of the 11 positive returns = 9.3%, while the median of the 9 negative returns = -5.5%
Additional information regarding observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post-earnings is compiled along with the statistics in the table below.
Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (although it may not be effective if the correlation is low) is to analyze the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post-earnings, identify a pair that demonstrates the highest correlation, and make the necessary trade. For instance, if 1D and 5D show the strongest correlation, a trader can take a “long” position for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Below is some correlation data based on 5-year and 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the relationship between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, the performance of peers can impact post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in may commence even before the earnings are revealed. Below is some historical data regarding the past post-earnings performance of CrowdStrike stock in comparison with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings shortly before CrowdStrike. For a fair comparison, peer stock returns also reflect post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
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