Nomura’s Global Markets Research team, led by Andrzej Szczepaniak, George Buckley and Josie Anderson, expects the ECB to raise the depo rate by 25bp to 2.50% at the 10 September meeting and then pause. The analysts see risks skewed toward further tightening if Brent stays elevated, but anticipate Lagarde will sound dovish versus market pricing and avoid pre‑committing to additional hikes.
September hike seen then extended pause
“We forecast the ECB will raise rates by 25bp at its 10 September meeting, lifting the depo rate to 2.50%. We believe that rising price pressures, owing to the ongoing US-Iran war, and the euro area’s economic…
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