Oil prices managed to move higher on Friday, with Brent settling 2.51% higher on the day. The market remains well supported in early morning trading today, ING’s commodity analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note.
IEA revises upward its Oil supply growth estimates
“This is despite a deterioration in the tariff environment, with the Trump administration sending new letters to trading partners, including the threat of 30% tariffs on imports from the EU and Mexico. With tariffs taking centre stage once again, Oil demand concerns are starting to re-emerge.”
“However, with President Trump scheduled to make a “major statement” on Russia today, there is plenty of uncertainty. There’s the potential that Trump could announce additional sanctions on Russia. This could dramatically shift the Oil outlook if sanctions target Russian energy.”
“In its latest monthly Oil market report, the International Energy Agency cut its demand growth forecast to 700k b/d for 2025. Ignoring the Covid years, this would be the lowest growth rate since 2009. The IEA blames weaker demand on emerging market economies. Looking ahead to 2026, global Oil demand is forecast to grow by 720k b/d year on year. The IEA also revised upward its Oil supply growth estimates amid the return of barrels from OPEC+. The agency now forecasts global supply will grow by 2.1m b/d YoY this year, and by a further 1.3m b/d in 2026.”
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