- NZD/USD appreciates amid risk-on mood following reports of the incoming Trump administration considering gradual hikes in import tariffs.
- The US Dollar depreciated following the disappointing US December Producer Price Index data.
- The New Zealand Dollar receives support from robust trade data from China and Beijing’s stimulus measures.
The NZD/USD cross extends its gains for the third consecutive day, trading near 0.5620 during European trading hours on Wednesday. The risk-sensitive New Zealand Dollar (NZD) benefits from improved market sentiment after reports, via Bloomberg, suggested that US President-elect Donald Trump’s economic team is considering a gradual approach to increasing import tariffs, bolstering investor confidence.
Additionally, the upside of the NZD/USD pair could be attributed to the subdued US Dollar (USD) following the disappointing US December Producer Price Index (PPI) data. Market participants will keep an eye on the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data, which is due later on Wednesday.
US Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.2% month-over-month in December after a 0.4% advance in November, softer than the 0.3% expected. The PPI climbed 3.3% YoY in December, the most since February 2023, after increasing 3.0% in November. This reading came in below the consensus of 3.4%.
The US Dollar may regain strength as hawkish sentiment builds around the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy outlook for January. According to the CME FedWatch tool, 30-day Fed Funds futures indicate a higher likelihood of just one interest rate cut from the Fed this year, contrasting with the two cuts projected in the Fed’s latest dot plot from the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP).
The New Zealand Dollar gained support from robust trade data from China and Beijing’s efforts to stabilize the Yuan. However, its upside remains limited as markets anticipate the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will reduce its 4.25% cash rate by 50 basis points in February due to the country’s weak economic conditions.
New Zealand Dollar FAQs
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.
Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
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