MongoDB (NASDAQ:MDB) a database management company, is scheduled to report its earnings on Wednesday, June 4, 2025. Historically, MDB stock has reacted negatively to earnings announcements, with a one-day decline in 55% of instances over the past five years. The median drop has been 10%, with a maximum single-day loss of 26.9%.
For event-driven traders, understanding these historical patterns can be advantageous. There are two primary strategies: either position yourself before the earnings release based on historical odds, or analyze the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns after the release to inform your subsequent moves.
Consensus estimates project earnings of $0.66 per share on revenues of $527.5 million. This compares to $0.51 per share on sales of $450.6 million in the year-ago quarter. Fundamentally, MongoDB has a current market capitalization of $15 billion, with $2.0 billion in revenue over the last twelve months. However, the company reported an operating loss of $216 million and a net loss of $129 million during the same period. That said, if you seek upside with lower volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio presents an alternative – having outperformed the S&P 500 and generated returns exceeding 91% since its inception. Separately, see – Merck Stock’s Ticking Keytruda Time Bomb.
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MDB Stock Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 9 positive and 11 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 45% of the time.
- However, this percentage decreases to 36% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 9 positive returns = 19%, and median of the 11 negative returns = -10%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D), and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
MDB Stock Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on 5-year and 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
Learn more about Trefis RV strategy that has outperformed its all-cap stocks benchmark (combination of all 3, the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000), to produce strong returns for investors. Separately, if you want upside with a smoother ride than an individual stock like MongoDB, consider the High Quality portfolio, which has outperformed the S&P, and clocked >91% returns since inception.
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