Alphabet is set to announce its earnings results on Thursday, April 24, 2025. As the date draws near, event-focused traders may benefit from analyzing how the stock has performed historically after earnings announcements. Alphabet currently holds a market capitalization of $1.9 trillion. Over the past twelve months, it posted $350 billion in revenue, delivering a strong operating profit of $112 billion and a net income of $100 billion.
Consensus expectations for the upcoming earnings call project earnings per share of $2.03 on revenue of $89.2 billion. This reflects an increase compared to the prior-year period, which reported $80.5 billion in sales and EPS of $1.89.
For traders considering taking positions around the earnings release, two main strategies based on past behavior may be useful. The first involves reviewing Alphabet’s historical stock response to prior earnings to evaluate the likelihood of specific price movements. In 11 out of the past 20 earnings events, the stock recorded a median one-day gain of 5.6%, with the highest single-day increase reaching 10%. Such patterns can help shape pre-earnings trading strategies.
The second approach assesses how the stock’s immediate post-earnings reaction correlates with its short- to medium-term performance. By monitoring the initial movement, investors might identify opportunities for follow-up trades. While past trends provide helpful context, the actual reaction will hinge on how reported results stack up against estimates and broader market sentiment. For those seeking returns with less volatility than single stocks, the Trefis High-Quality portfolio is an appealing option — outperforming the S&P 500 with returns over 91% since inception.
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Alphabet’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Here are some insights into one-day (1D) post-earnings stock movements:
- There have been 20 earnings events in the past five years, with 11 positive and 9 negative one-day returns, meaning a 55% chance of a positive reaction.
- That probability drops to 42% when looking at the past 3 years alone.
- The median return among the 11 positive results was 5.6%, while the 9 negative outcomes had a median loss of -5.0%.
More details on 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) post-earnings returns are provided in the table below.
Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns
Another approach — particularly for those seeking lower risk — is to evaluate the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns following earnings. Traders can identify the strongest pair of correlated windows and act accordingly. For example, if 1D and 5D returns are highly correlated, a positive 1D return may justify holding a long position for 5 days. Below is correlation data based on both 5-year and more recent 3-year data. Note that “1D_5D” reflects the correlation between 1-day and 5-day post-earnings returns.
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