DR Horton, a U.S.-based home construction company, is scheduled to announce its fiscal Q2 results on Thursday, April 17, 2025. Analysts expect earnings of $2.67 per share on revenue of $8.03 billion. These figures represent a 24% decrease in earnings and a 12% decline in revenue from the prior year’s $3.52 per share and $9.11 billion, respectively. Historically, the stock has gained after earnings 58% of the time, with a median one-day increase of 3.0% and a maximum surge of 10%.
In the previous quarter (Q1), D.R. Horton saw a 21% year-over-year reduction in its sales order backlog, indicating possible revenue pressures ahead. Successfully navigating market competition and macroeconomic challenges will be essential for the company to maintain its growth trajectory. DR Horton currently holds a market capitalization of $38 billion. Over the last twelve months, it posted $37 billion in revenue, with $5.8 billion in operating profits and net income of $4.7 billion. While near-term stock movements may hinge on earnings performance versus expectations, studying past performance can offer insights for event-driven traders.
For such traders, historical patterns can be advantageous—either by positioning ahead of earnings or by responding after results are released. For those seeking growth with less volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High-Quality portfolioprovides an alternative, having outpaced the S&P 500 with returns exceeding 91% since launch. See earnings reaction history of all stocks.
DR Horton’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Insights from one-day (1D) post-earnings returns include:
- Over the past five years, there have been 19 earnings instances with 11 positive and 8 negative 1D returns. This results in a 58% rate of positive returns.
- The 3-year data shows the same 58% rate of positive returns.
- Median return for the 11 positive days = 3.0%, while for the 8 negative days = -2.7%
Additional stats for 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) post-earnings returns are included in the table below.
Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns
A more measured strategy—assuming meaningful correlation—is to identify relationships between short- and medium-term post-earnings returns. Traders can then act accordingly. For instance, if 1D and 5D returns exhibit strong correlation, a positive 1D result might justify a “long” 5-day position. Below is correlation data from both 5-year and 3-year periods. Note: “1D_5D” refers to the correlation between 1-day post-earnings returns and 5-day outcomes.
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