Gold price sticks to gains above $3,000, record high amid rising geopolitical risks

• Gold price continues to attract safe-haven flows amid trade jitters and geopolitical risks.
• Bets that the Fed will cut rates several times this year further benefit the yellow metal.
• A modest USD bounce and the risk-on mood might cap the upside for the XAU/USD pair. 

Gold price (XAU/USD) builds on the previous day’s gains beyond the $3,000 psychological mark and touches a fresh all-time peak during the Asian session on Tuesday. This marks the second straight day of a positive move for the safe-haven bullion – also the fifth in the previous six – and is sponsored by the uncertainty over US President Donald Trump’s policies, US recession fears, and geopolitical risks. Adding to this, expectations of more rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed), bolstered by softer consumer spending data on Monday, lend additional support to the non-yielding yellow metal.

Meanwhile, the global risk sentiment remains well supported by the optimism over China’s stimulus measures and hopes for a Ukraine peace deal. This might hold back traders from placing fresh bullish bets around the Gold price. Furthermore, a modest US Dollar (USD) recovery, from its lowest level since October 2024 touched on Monday, should contribute to capping the XAU/USD. Investors might also opt to wait for the outcome of the highly-anticipated two-day FOMC policy meeting, which will drive the USD demand in the near term and provide a fresh directional impetus to the commodity. 

Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price remains well supported near all-time top amid geopolitical risks

• The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said it is carrying out “extensive strikes” in the Gaza Strip and targeting what it called “terror targets” belonging to Hamas. This comes after talks to extend the Gaza ceasefire failed to reach an agreement at meetings in Qatar, raising the risk of further escalation of geopolitical tensions in the region. 
• Concerns about the economic slowdown resurfaced after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Sunday there were no guarantees that the U.S. economy will avoid recession this year. This further underpins demand for traditional safe-haven assets and lifts the Gold price to a fresh all-time peak during the Asian session on Tuesday. 
• On the economic data front, the US Census Bureau reported on Monday that US Retail Sales rose by 0.2% in February vs the downwardly revised decline of 1.2% the prior month. The reading fell short of expectations for a 0.7% growth, signaling consumer caution and lifting bets that the Federal Reserve will resume its rate-cutting cycle.
• The Fed funds futures suggest that the US central bank could lower borrowing costs by 25 basis points each at the June, July, and October monetary policy meetings. This might cap the attempted US Dollar recovery from its lowest level since October 2024 touched on Monday and is further seen acting as a tailwind for the non-yielding yellow metal. 
• Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump expressed optimism that Russia and Ukraine will be able to come to a ceasefire and ultimately a peace deal. This comes ahead of the Trump-Putin peace talks on Tuesday, which, along with the optimism led by China’s stimulus measures announced over the weekend, remains supportive of the upbeat market mood.
• Traders now look to Tuesday’s US economic docket – featuring the release of Building Permits, Housing Starts, and Industrial Production data. The focus, however, will remain glued to the outcome of a two-day FOMC meeting on Wednesday, which will drive the USD demand in the near term and provide a fresh directional impetus to the XAU/USD pair. 

Gold price slightly overbought daily RSI warrants caution for bulls and before positioning for further gains

From a technical perspective, acceptance above the $3,000 psychological mark could be seen as a fresh trigger for bullish traders. That said, the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart has started flashing slightly overbought conditions. This makes it prudent to wait for some near-term consolidation or a modest pullback before positioning for an extension of the recent well-established uptrend witnessed over the past three months or so.

Meanwhile, any corrective slide below the $2,980-2,978 immediate support could be seen as a buying opportunity and remain limited near the $2,956 resistance breakpoint. A convincing break below the latter, however, might prompt some technical selling and drag the Gold price to the $2,930-2,928 horizontal zone en route to the $2,900 round figure and last week’s swing low, around the $2,880 region.