European gas prices fell by a little more than 9% last week, the largest weekly decline since early January. However, prices still remain elevated, with TTF trading above EUR50/MWh, ING’s commodity analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey notes.
Russia and Ukraine peace talks may weigh on sentiment
“US and Russia talks working towards a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine will weigh on sentiment. In addition, there are ongoing discussions around flexibility with regards to storage refill targets. There is still little clarity over whether Germany will subsidise storage refills and, if so, how it will be done.”
“Although, the backwardation between summer 2025 and winter 2025/26 prices has flattened somewhat over the last week. If this trend continues, it obviously reduces the likelihood of new subsidies. However, storage levels are a concern for Europe.”
“Gas storage levels fell at a fairly quick pace last week, leaving them at a little under 45% full, compared to a 5-year average of 54% full. Colder weather forecasts for the next couple of days mean that these stronger storage draws will likely continue until weather turns milder later in the week.”
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