We’re having a lot of internal discussions about the outperformance of eurozone equities this year. Factors that could be relevant here are: eurozone macro data slightly surprising to the upside, the European Central Bank having more room to cut than the Fed, US markets trading on much higher multiples than Europe, and perhaps even speculation about a ceasefire in Ukraine, ING’s FX analyst Chris Turner notes.
EUR/USD may recover towards the 1.0450 area
“As FX analysts we note that periods of rotation into eurozone equities can help the euro, since equity investments are largely non-FX hedged. We recall 2017 when relief after the French and Dutch elections prompted a major rerating of eurozone equities and the euro.”
“Frankly, it’s hard to see such optimism coming through for the euro today. Growth remains poor, the fiscal cavalry remains in its barracks and the ECB may well be cutting by another 100bp this year to keep rate spreads wide. That is why, if we do see any short-term recovery in EUR/USD to say the 1.0450 area, it may well peter out there.”
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