DOGE Check Timing Revealed?
The concept of a DOGE check, which proposes distributing 20% of government savings directly to taxpayers, has recently gained notable endorsements from President Trump and Elon Musk. While the proposal has been met with some skepticism, including from key members of the Republican Party, James Fishback, the 28-year-old hedge fund manager behind the concept, has continued lobbying for its adoption. In recent days, Fishback revealed that he met with Musk and commenced discussions with lawmakers. In an interview with the NY Post, he also asserted that there would be a proposed bill relating to a DOGE check coming very soon. He doubled down on this assertion during an interview with NewsNation.
How much credence should be given to Fishback’s claim?
Fishback’s Claim On DOGE Check Timing
Fishback has been making the rounds on Capitol Hill promoting the DOGE check concept and said he had several promising conversations on the proposal. He posted a video on X showing a brief encounter with Elon Musk, saying, “Great chatting with @ElonMusk about the DOGE Dividend. Grateful for his immense service to our nation.” He has also interviewed with NBC News and appeared on Fox Business’ “Maria Bartiromo’s Wall Street” to discuss the DOGE dividend check.
While the timing of a DOGE check did not come up in these interviews, Fishback dangled an enticing crumb during an interview with the NY Post on February 27. “The president supports this, and Elon likes the idea of incentivizing people to report waste, fraud, and abuse,” Fishback told the publication. He also asserted that “the proposed bill will be coming in the next few days.” I contacted Fishback via direct message on X and asked him to elaborate on his comment and clarify what bill he was referring to and precisely where and when it would be introduced. He didn’t dispute the timing attributed to him in the NY Post, but also didn’t elaborate. His only comment was succinct: “Stay tuned!”
During an interview with NewsNation on March 4, Fishback reiterated his claim, telling host Blake Berman, “I am optimistic a bill is forthcoming to put President Trump’s vision for DOGE coming full circle into law. It isn’t just enough, Blake, to identify waste, fraud and abuse. We have to refund the taxpayer their hard-earned money when their money was wasted and misused, and that’s what the DOGE dividend calls for.” When pushed on why he was optimistic, Fishback responded that “the plan will be revealed in the coming week or so. I don’t want to break any news right here.”
Assessing The Veracity Of Fishback’s DOGE Check Timing Claim
There are a few reasons to be skeptical of Fishback’s claim on the timing of a proposed bill relating to a DOGE check:
- Aside from Fishback, no other individuals have made a similar claim on the timing and no member of Congress has corroborated his assertion. Notably, President Trump made no mention of a DOGE check during his address to Congress on Tuesday evening.
- There isn’t any urgency to pass a bill related to a potential DOGE check. Even in Fishback’s original proposal, he envisioned paying the dividend after the Department of Government Efficiency finished its work in July 2026. Why would this come to a head now, more than a year in advance?
- For the DOGE check to materialize, the proposed bill must navigate the legislative process, requiring approval from the House of Representatives and the Senate before being signed into law by the President. This journey is fraught with potential obstacles, including partisan disagreements and even intra-party debates over fiscal responsibility. Given that Republicans are laser-focused on passing a budget bill that would extend Trump’s tax cuts and reduce federal spending, the DOGE check could be perceived as a distraction right now.
- The timing is also suspect given that some Republicans have expressed skepticism about a DOGE check. This includes House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) who said that while the idea would be a political winner, he was more focused on paying down the $36 trillion federal debt. Senators, including Ron Johnson (R-Wis.), Cynthia Lummis (R-Wyo.), Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), and Rand Paul (R-Ky.) have echoed Johnson’s view when asked about the possibility of sending a DOGE check. All have indicated they are amenable to the concept, but want to prioritiz balancing the budget, reduce spending, and paydown the deficit. Ultimately, what may matter most is what Trump wants given his near total control of Washington, but the current opposition from Congressional Republicans is pronounced.
- Finally, locking the administration into a DOGE check commitment could be premature and potentially embarrassing for the administration. Under Fishback’s proposal, households that are net taxpayers—those contributing more in taxes than they receive in benefits—would receive 20% of all savings identified by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). Fishback estimates that if DOGE achieves $2 trillion in savings, approximately 79 million households could each receive a $5,000 check. The actual savings realized may fall short of this ambitious target, potentially reducing the dividend amount remitted to taxpayers. If this is the case and a bill had already been passed, it could force the administration to send out dividend checks for a much smaller, or even negligible, amount.
The Upshot On Timing Of Potential DOGE Check
The DOGE check proposal has garnered high-profile supporters, including Trump and Musk, but its implementation faces numerous hurdles. The proposal’s success hinges on legislative approval, substantial government savings, and mitigation of potential economic side effects. This could lead one to be skeptical of Fishback’s claim that a proposed bill is imminent.
Fishback’s DOGE check timing claim has some wiggle room given that the phrase “the next few days” is often used to convey a relatively short, but not precisely defined timeframe. The same argument holds for the claim made to NewsNation that a “bill is forthcoming.” While there are reasons to doubt it, ultimately we may just have to wait to validate or refute his assertion. What we do know, is that many Americans across the political spectrum, are rooting for a DOGE check to materalize.
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