Downside asymmetry in the set-up for Copper flows is forming. Range-bound price action is akin to time-decay for trend signals, which lowers the bar for whipsaws in algo positioning, TDS’ Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Ghali notes.
CTAs may turn to building a significant net short position
“Our simulations of future prices point to no reasonable scenario for price action that could lead to subsequent CTA buying activity for the time being, but conversely, the bar is low for CTAs to sell their entire book long.”
“In fact, a continued downtape in prices could force CTAs to abandon their net long and flip towards building a significant net short position, in a series of selling programs that could total up to -55% of algos’ max size.”
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