Alcoa is scheduled to report its first quarter earnings on Wednesday, April 16, 2025. According to consensus estimates, revenue is expected to rise by approximately 22% to around $3.6 billion, while earnings are projected at roughly $1.20 per share. This growth is anticipated to be supported by an increase in alumina shipments, although realized prices are expected to be lower. Strong demand from sectors like electric vehicles and renewable energy continues to drive alumina shipment volumes.
The company currently holds a market capitalization of $6.1 billion. Over the past twelve months, it generated $12 billion in revenue, with $828 million in operating profits and $60 million in net income. For those seeking potential upside with less volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High-Quality portfolio offers an alternative, having outpaced the S&P 500 and delivered returns exceeding 91% since its launch.
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Alcoa’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Key takeaways from one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There have been 20 earnings releases in the past five years, with 6 positive and 14 negative one-day returns. This translates to a 30% frequency of positive 1D returns.
- This figure drops to 25% when only the past three years are considered.
- The median of the 6 positive returns is 3.1%, while the median of the 14 negative returns is -4.3%.
Additional insights into 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) post-earnings returns are included in the table below.
Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns
A potentially lower-risk approach (though contingent on meaningful correlation) is to examine the relationship between short-term and medium-term returns post-earnings, identify the most correlated timeframes, and trade accordingly. For instance, if the strongest correlation is between 1D and 5D returns, an investor might go “long” for 5 days if the 1D return is positive. Below is some correlation data based on five-year and three-year periods. Note that 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1-day post-earnings returns and subsequent 5-day returns.
Learn more about the Trefis RV strategy, which has outperformed its all-cap benchmark (a mix of the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000) to deliver strong returns. Alternatively, if you’re seeking steady upside versus an individual stock like Alcoa, explore the High Quality portfolio, which has surpassed the S&P and delivered returns exceeding 91% since inception.
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