Australian Dollar (AUD) has been under pressure over the last couple of sessions after the recent flare-up in US-China tensions over rare earth material controls and threat of fresh 100% tariffs as well as in reaction to softer than expect labor market print. Last seen at 0.6506 levels, OCBC’s FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.
Bearish momentum on daily chart intact
“Unemployment rate rose to 4.5% (a 4-year high), from 4.2% previously while employment change came in at 14.9k, underwhelming expectations of 20k. The dismal job report puts RBA rate cut story back in play.”
“Cash rate futures priced in a full 25bp cut for Dec meeting post-labour market data (vs. 15bp cut a day ago). Heightened geopolitical uncertainty and renewed focus on RBA cut may weigh on AUD in the interim.”
“Bearish momentum on daily chart intact while the rise in RSI moderated. 21 DMA looks on track to cut 50 DMA to the downside. Risks skewed to the downside for now. Support at 0.6420/30 levels (200 DMA, 50% fibo retracement of 2024 high to 2025 low). Resistance at 0.6550 (61.8% fibo, 50 DMA).”
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