Casey’s General Stores (NASDAQ: CASY), a gas station and convenience store chain, is set to announce its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings (April year) on Monday, June 9, 2025, with analysts expecting earnings of $1.95 per share on $3.95 billion in revenue. This would reflect a 17% decrease in earnings year-over-year and a 10% rise in sales compared to the previous year’s figures of $2.35 per share and $3.60 billion in revenue. Historically, the CASY stock has dipped 65% of the time after earnings announcements, with a median one-day decline of 2.9% and a maximum drop of 7%.
During the third quarter, Casey’s reported an 11% year-over-year rise in EBITDA and anticipated similar growth for the entire year. While net income remained unchanged, it would have increased by 15%, excluding one-off expenses from the $1.1 billion acquisition of Fikes Wholesale and its 198 stores. This performance underscores Casey’s robust profitability amid the integration of one of its largest acquisitions ever. The company holds a market capitalization of $17 billion. Over the last twelve months, revenue reached $16 billion, and it was operationally profitable with $768 million in operating profits and a net income of $535 million.
For event-driven traders, historical trends may provide an advantage, whether by positioning ahead of earnings or reacting to movements after the announcement. If you’re looking for an upside with less volatility than that of individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio offers an alternative, having outperformed the S&P 500 and delivered returns over 91% since its inception.
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Casey’s General Stores Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Here are some insights regarding one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 7 positive and 13 negative one-day (1D) returns recorded. In summary, positive 1D returns were observed approximately 35% of the time.
- This percentage increases to 50% if we examine data for the last 3 years instead of the past 5.
- The median of the 7 positive returns = 7.4%, while the median of the 13 negative returns = -2.9%
Further data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively low-risk strategy (though ineffective if the correlation is weak) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns following earnings, identify a pair with the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For instance, if 1D and 5D exhibit the strongest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Below is some correlation data based on a 5-year and 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D pertains to the relationship between 1D post-earnings returns and the subsequent 5D returns.
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