All eyes are on the Bank of Canada today, with markets divided over whether a rate cut is imminent. While a hold is our base case, uncertainty remains high amid weakening data and global trade headwinds. Regardless of the decision, the tone of the BoC’s risk assessment will be key for the CAD’s direction, Danske Bank’s FX analysts report.
Balance of risks may influence CAD more than the policy rate
“For today’s Majors session the Bank of Canada meeting will gain traction with analysts split on an unchanged decision and a 25bp cut. We lean towards the former but highlight that it’s a low-conviction call amid continued trade uncertainty and Canadian economic figures steadily rolling over during the last couple of months.”
“Irrespective of the rate decision markets will focus on the central bank’s balance of risk assessment. An unchanged decision today would likely boost the CAD temporarily in a move that we would favour selling into.”
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