- The Australian Unemployment Rate is foreseen unchanged at 4.1% in April.
- Employment Change is expected to post a modest advance at the beginning of the second quarter.
- AUD/USD pressures the upper end of its latest range, aims for a bullish breakout.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) will release the April monthly employment report at 01:30 GMT on Thursday. The country is expected to have added 20K new job positions, while the Unemployment Rate is projected to hold steady at 4.1%. Ahead of the announcement, the Australian Dollar (AUD) trades near the 0.6500 level against the US Dollar (USD), flirting with the year high posted early May at 0.6514.
The ABS Employment Change separately reports full-time and part-time jobs. According to its definition, full-time jobs imply working 38 or more hours per week and usually include additional benefits, but they mostly represent consistent income. On the other hand, part-time employment generally offers higher hourly rates but lacks consistency and benefits. This is why full-time jobs are given more weight than part-time ones when setting the directional path for the AUD.
In March, Australia created 32.2K new job positions, adding 15K new full-time positions and 17.2K part-time ones.
Australian Unemployment Rate seen steady in April
The Australian Unemployment Rate has held around 4% since April 2024, easing towards 3.9% in November and peaking at 4.1% in January 2025. Despite standing at the upper end of the range, unemployment levels in Australia are becoming less of a concern.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) met on April 1, leaving the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 4.10%. According to its definition, the RBA’s duty is to contribute to the stability of the currency, full employment and the economic prosperity and welfare of the Australian people.
In its latest meeting, RBA officials noted that “labour market conditions remain tight. Despite a decline in employment in February, measures of labour underutilisation are at relatively low rates and business surveys and liaison suggest that availability of labour is still a constraint for a range of employers. Wage pressures have eased a little more than expected but productivity growth has not picked up and growth in unit labour costs remains high.”
Other than that, policymakers stated: “Inflation has fallen substantially since the peak in 2022, as higher interest rates have been working to bring aggregate demand and supply closer towards balance. Recent information suggests that underlying inflation continues to ease in line with the most recent forecasts published in the February Statement on Monetary Policy. Nevertheless, the Board needs to be confident that this progress will continue so that inflation returns to the midpoint of the target band on a sustainable basis. It is therefore cautious about the outlook.”
With that in mind, it seems unlikely that the upcoming monthly employment report could have a broad impact on the RBA’s monetary policy path. It’s worth noting that the central bank will meet once again on May 20.
In the meantime, global trade tensions receded, bolstering AUD demand. China and the United States (US) agreed to drastically reduce tit-for-tat tariffs for 90 days, aiming to clinch, in the meantime, a more reasonable trade deal. It may be too early to claim victory on the matter, but at least the headlines maintained the market’s mood tilted to positive, which should provide additional support to the AUD.
When will the Australian employment report be released and how could it affect AUD/USD?
The ABS will publish the April employment report early on Thursday. As previously stated, Australia is expected to have added 20K new job positions in the month, while the Unemployment Rate is foreseen at 4.1%. Finally, the Participation Rate is expected to hold at 66.8%.
Generally speaking, a better-than-anticipated employment report will boost the AUD, even if the more significant increase comes from part-time jobs. However, the advance could be more sustainable if the increase comes from full-time positions. The opposite scenario is also valid, with soft figures weighing on the Australian currency.
Ahead of the announcement, the AUD/USD pair trades not far below the aforementioned yearly high. According to Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet, “further AUD/USD gains are likely, but will depend on the market’s sentiment, rather than on employment data, particularly if the figures result within expectations.”
Bednarik adds: “Despite being near a multi-month high, the AUD/USD pair lacks clear upward momentum, and, on the contrary, remains within a clear consolidative range between 0.6350 and 0.6510. Technical readings in the daily chart reflect the neutral stance, as moving averages stand pretty much flat. Still, the pair is currently above the 200 Simple Moving Average (SMA), which develops above the 20 and 100 SMAs, which skews the risk to the upside. The same chart shows technical indicators lost their upward strength but hold within positive levels, also aligned with upward risks.”
“Gains beyond the top of the range within a risk-on environment could push the pair towards the 0.6600 mark in the near term. Gains beyond the latter would be more related to broad USD weakness than AUD strength, with near-term resistance at 0.6630 and the 0.6670 price zone. Support, on the other hand, comes at 0.6420 and 0.6370, with buyers likely to reappear around the latter.”
Employment FAQs
Labor market conditions are a key element to assess the health of an economy and thus a key driver for currency valuation. High employment, or low unemployment, has positive implications for consumer spending and thus economic growth, boosting the value of the local currency. Moreover, a very tight labor market – a situation in which there is a shortage of workers to fill open positions – can also have implications on inflation levels and thus monetary policy as low labor supply and high demand leads to higher wages.
The pace at which salaries are growing in an economy is key for policymakers. High wage growth means that households have more money to spend, usually leading to price increases in consumer goods. In contrast to more volatile sources of inflation such as energy prices, wage growth is seen as a key component of underlying and persisting inflation as salary increases are unlikely to be undone. Central banks around the world pay close attention to wage growth data when deciding on monetary policy.
The weight that each central bank assigns to labor market conditions depends on its objectives. Some central banks explicitly have mandates related to the labor market beyond controlling inflation levels. The US Federal Reserve (Fed), for example, has the dual mandate of promoting maximum employment and stable prices. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) sole mandate is to keep inflation under control. Still, and despite whatever mandates they have, labor market conditions are an important factor for policymakers given its significance as a gauge of the health of the economy and their direct relationship to inflation.
RBA FAQs
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for Australia. Decisions are made by a board of governors at 11 meetings a year and ad hoc emergency meetings as required. The RBA’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means an inflation rate of 2-3%, but also “..to contribute to the stability of the currency, full employment, and the economic prosperity and welfare of the Australian people.” Its main tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will strengthen the Australian Dollar (AUD) and vice versa. Other RBA tools include quantitative easing and tightening.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for currencies since it lowers the value of money in general, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Moderately higher inflation now tends to lead central banks to put up their interest rates, which in turn has the effect of attracting more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in the case of Australia is the Aussie Dollar.
Macroeconomic data gauges the health of an economy and can have an impact on the value of its currency. Investors prefer to invest their capital in economies that are safe and growing rather than precarious and shrinking. Greater capital inflows increase the aggregate demand and value of the domestic currency. Classic indicators, such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can influence AUD. A strong economy may encourage the Reserve Bank of Australia to put up interest rates, also supporting AUD.
Quantitative Easing (QE) is a tool used in extreme situations when lowering interest rates is not enough to restore the flow of credit in the economy. QE is the process by which the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) prints Australian Dollars (AUD) for the purpose of buying assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from financial institutions, thereby providing them with much-needed liquidity. QE usually results in a weaker AUD.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the RBA stops buying more assets, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It would be positive (or bullish) for the Australian Dollar.
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