Wynn stock (NASDAQ: WYNN) is set to announce its fiscal first-quarter earnings on Tuesday, May 6, 2025, with analysts anticipating earnings of $1.24 per share from $1.74 billion in revenue. This would indicate a 5% year-over-year decrease in earnings and a 6% reduction in sales compared to last year’s figures of $1.30 per share and $1.86 billion in revenue. Historically, Wynn’s stock has demonstrated a pattern of underperformance after earnings announcements, having declined 60% of the time, with a median one-day decrease of 2.0% and a maximum observed drop of 9%.
In spite of short-term difficulties like macroeconomic pressures and uncertainties related to tariffs, WYNN is dedicated to long-term growth by focusing on premium customer segments and increasing its market share. The company is driving organic growth, bolstered by optimized pricing strategies and prudent cost management. Currently, WYNN has a market capitalization of $8.5 billion. Over the last twelve months, it recorded $7.1 billion in revenue, with $1.1 billion in operating profit and $501 million in net income.
For traders focused on events, historical performance patterns and the disparity between actual results and analyst forecasts may offer valuable insights in anticipation of the upcoming earnings report. That said, if you are looking for upside with less volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio presents an alternative, having outperformed the S&P 500 and achieving returns greater than 91% since its inception. See the earnings reaction history of all stocks.
Historical Odds of Positive Post-Earnings Return for Wynn Resorts
Some insights into one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 8 positive and 12 negative one-day (1D) returns noted. Overall, positive 1D returns occurred about 40% of the time.
- This percentage rises to 42% when looking at data for the last 3 years instead of the last 5.
- The median of the 8 positive returns is 5.9%, whereas the median of the 12 negative returns is -2.0%
Additional information on observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings is summarized, alongside the statistics in the table below.
Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns
A comparatively less risky strategy (although not beneficial if the correlation is low) is to examine the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns following earnings, identify a pair that exhibits the highest correlation, and implement the appropriate trade. For instance, if the correlation between 1D and 5D is the strongest, a trader can opt for a “long” position for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Below is some correlation data based on both 5-year and 3-year (recent) history. Note that the 1D_5D correlation refers to the relationship between 1D post-earnings returns and following 5D returns.
Is There Any Correlation with Earnings from Peers?
Occasionally, the performance of peers can impact post-earnings stock reactions. Indeed, the pricing-in may commence prior to the earnings announcement. Here is some historical information on Wynn Resorts stock’s post-earnings performance compared to those of peers that reported earnings just before Wynn Resorts. For a fair comparison, peer stock returns also reflect post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
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