Hims & Hers Health (NYSE:HIMS) is set to release its earnings report on Monday, May 5, 2025. Historically, the stock has displayed considerable volatility around its earnings announcements. In the past five years, it has recorded a negative one-day return following earnings in 56% of instances, with a median negative return of -5.8% and a maximum negative return of -22.3%.
This upcoming earnings report is especially significant, as analysts project earnings per share of $0.23 on revenue of $538.4 million. These projections indicate nearly a two-fold increase compared to the earnings of $0.10 per share on revenue of $278.2 million reported in the same quarter last year. The company has been witnessing robust customer growth, and this trend is likely to continue.
For event-driven traders, grasping these historical patterns might provide a potential advantage, although the actual market reaction will largely hinge on how the reported results align with consensus estimates and overall market expectations. There are typically two strategies to consider: either positioning oneself prior to the earnings release based on historical probabilities, or evaluating the relationship between immediate and medium-term returns post-announcement to guide future trades.
From a fundamental viewpoint, Hims presently boasts a market capitalization of $7.7 billion. Its revenue over the trailing twelve months is $1.5 billion, and the company has shown operational profitability with $62 million in operating profits and a net income of $126 million.
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HIMS Stock Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some insights on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 16 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 7 positive and 9 negative one-day (1D) returns noted. In summary, positive 1D returns were recorded approximately 44% of the time.
- However, this percentage drops to 42% when considering data for the last 3 years rather than 5.
- Median of the 7 positive returns = 13%, with the median of the 9 negative returns = -5.8%
Additional information on observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings is summarized alongside the statistics in the table below.
HIMS Stock Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns
A strategy with comparatively lower risk (though less useful if the correlation is weak) is to comprehend the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, identify a pair that exhibits the highest correlation, and perform the necessary trade. For instance, if 1D and 5D show the strongest correlation, a trader may position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on 5-year and 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the relationship between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
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