Ford Motor is scheduled to report earnings on May 5, 2025. Analysts expect earnings of approximately $0.01 per share, down from $0.49 per share in the same quarter a year ago, while revenues are projected to be around $35.3 billion, an 11.6% decline from last year. The company has already disclosed its U.S. Q1 vehicle delivery figures, showing a 1.3% year-over-year decrease, driven by model discontinuations and the timing of certain rental fleet sales. By contrast, Ford’s main competitor, General Motors, reported a 17% year-over-year increase in U.S. sales for Q1 2025. Nevertheless, Ford’s pickup truck deliveries—including the Maverick, Ranger, and F-Series—grew by 25%, which likely helped mitigate margin and profitability pressures.
The company’s current market capitalization stands at $38 billion. Over the past twelve months, revenue totaled $185 billion, with operating profit of $5.2 billion and net income of $5.9 billion. For investors seeking upside with less volatility than single stocks, the Trefis High-Quality portfolio offers an alternative, having outperformed the S&P 500 and delivered returns of over 91% since inception.
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Ford Motor’s Historical Odds of a Positive Post-Earnings Return
Key observations for one-day (1D) post-earnings returns include:
- Across the past five years, there are 20 earnings observations, with 9 positive and 11 negative one-day (1D) returns, resulting in positive 1D returns roughly 45% of the time.
- This ratio falls to 33% when focusing on the most recent three years instead of five.
- The median of the 9 positive returns is 2.6%, while the median of the 11 negative returns is –7.6%.
Additional statistics for observed five-day (5D) and 21-day (21D) post-earnings returns are summarized in the table below.
Correlation Among 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns
A less risky strategy—though only effective if correlations are significant—is to analyze the relationship between short-term and medium-term post-earnings returns, identify the highest-correlated pair, and trade accordingly. For instance, if 1D and 5D returns show the strongest correlation, a trader might go “long” for the following five days when the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Below is correlation data based on both five-year and three-year (more recent) periods. Note that “1D_5D” denotes the correlation between one-day post-earnings returns and the subsequent five-day returns.
Learn more about the Trefis RV strategy, which has outperformed its all-cap stocks benchmark—a combination of the S&P 500, S&P MidCap, and Russell 2000—to deliver strong returns for investors. Alternatively, if you seek upside with smoother volatility than an individual stock like Ford Motor, consider the Trefis High-Quality portfolio, which has also outperformed the S&P 500 and achieved returns exceeding 91% since inception.
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