Comcast is scheduled to announce its earnings on Thursday, April 24, 2025. We anticipate the company may face some earnings pressure this quarter, driven by intensified competition and sluggish growth in its core broadband segment. Last quarter, Comcast reported a larger-than-expected loss of 139,000 residential broadband subscribers, primarily due to growing competition from telecom firms such as T-Mobile. Additionally, its media division might also encounter challenges due to uneven consumer spending patterns, which could weigh on advertising revenue. The theme park segment could also be affected by the recent wildfires in Southern California, which likely impacted attendance at Universal Studios in Los Angeles. Based on consensus forecasts, the company’s earnings per share are projected to be around $0.99, a decline of roughly 5% from the prior year, while revenue is expected to remain steady at approximately $29.8 billion.
Comcast currently has a market capitalization of $131 billion. Over the last twelve months, it reported $124 billion in revenue, along with $23 billion in operating income and $16 billion in net income. For investors seeking growth with reduced volatility compared to individual stocks, the Trefis High-Quality portfolio offers an alternative, having outperformed the S&P 500 and delivered returns of over 91% since inception.
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Comcast’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Key insights on one-day (1D) post-earnings stock performance:
- There are 20 earnings reports recorded over the past five years, with 10 positive and 10 negative 1D returns. This means Comcast has delivered a positive return 50% of the time post-earnings.
- That same 50% rate holds true when narrowing the view to the past three years.
- The median gain among the 10 positive returns is 3.4%, while the median loss among the 10 negative ones is -4.7%.
Additional statistics on 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) post-earnings returns are presented in the table below.
Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns
One potentially lower-risk approach (assuming a meaningful correlation) involves analyzing the relationship between short- and medium-term post-earnings returns. If, for example, 1D and 5D returns show the highest correlation, investors might take a long position for five days following a positive 1D return. Below is the correlation data based on five-year and three-year trends. Note: “1D_5D” indicates the correlation between 1D and subsequent 5D post-earnings returns.
Explore the Trefis RV strategy, which has outperformed its all-cap benchmark (a combination of the S&P 500, S&P MidCap, and Russell 2000), generating impressive returns. Alternatively, for those preferring a more stable investment than individual stocks like Comcast, the High Quality portfolio continues to beat the S&P and has delivered over 91% in total returns since launch.
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