- The Greenback is losing earlier gains after China issued tariffs on all US goods.
- Focus shifts now to the Nonfarm Payrolls and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell speaking.
- The US Dollar Index is back sub-102.00 and looks bleak ahead of the weekend.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, sees an earlier attempt to recover fail, trading at 101.90 at the time of writing on Friday. China is lashing out at the US tariffs by imposing a 34% tariff on all US goods from April 10th, a day after the US tariffs will be imposed. The focus now shifts towards the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data release and Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell’s speech up next.
On the economic calendar front, expectations for the NFP range from 80,000 to 200,000, with the consensus view at 135,000 for March’s performance. Seeing the slide in JOLTS Job Openings and the surge in Challenger Job Cuts announcements this week, the question will be if that 135,000 is not an overly-elevated expectation. Markets can look for guidance from Powell, who will speak briefly thereafter.
Daily digest market movers: Headline and data risk in tango
- At 12:30 GMT, US employment data for March will be released:
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- Nonfarm Payrolls are expected to come in at 135,000 compared to 151,000 in February. A drop below 80,000 could see some more USD weakness whereas a number above 200,000 would see a stronger USD.
- The monthly Average Hourly Earnings should remain stable at 0.3%.
- The Unemployment Rate is expected to come in at 4.1% as in February.
- At 15:25 GMT, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks about the economic outlook at the Society for Advancing Business Editing and Writing (SABEW) Annual Conference.
- At 16:00 GMT, Fed Governor Michael Barr will speak on AI and Banking.
- Fed Governor Chris Waller will speak at 16:45 GMT on Payments at a New York Fed Conference.
- Murder on the trading floor with losses in Europe around 4%-5% while US equities are dipping near 4%.
- According to the CME Fedwatch Tool, the probability of interest rates remaining at the current range of 4.25%-4.50% in May’s meeting is 68.1%, coming from 81.5% last week. For June’s meeting, the odds for borrowing costs being lower stand at 92.6%, whereas only last week, the odds were roughly 81.1%.
- The US 10-year yields trade around 3.90%, a fresh five-month low with the next low to bear near 3.69% from the beginning of October 2024.
US Dollar Index Technical Analysis: Swing trading
The pendulum is swinging for the US Dollar Index, with strength on the left and weakness on the right. On the left, there have been years of US Dollar strength, which was perceived as a market standard. However, since the start of March – with the defense budget spending bill in Germany and US President Donald Trump in office – the pendulum for the DXY has swung. More US Dollar weakness is likely once the tariff impact on the US economy starts to take its effect. As stagflation and recession fears are picking up, the DXY could easily fall below 100.00 later this year.
With the sizable downward move on Thursday, some support levels have turned into resistance. The first level to watch out for is 103.18, which has been held as support throughout March. Above there, the 104.00 pivotal level and the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 104.89 come into play.
On the downside, 101.90 is the first line of defense and it should be able to trigger a bounce as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) momentum indicator is issuing warnings of oversold conditions on the daily chart. Maybe not this Friday, but in the coming days, a break below 101.90 could see a leg lower towards 100.00.
US Dollar Index: Daily Chart
US-China Trade War FAQs
Generally speaking, a trade war is an economic conflict between two or more countries due to extreme protectionism on one end. It implies the creation of trade barriers, such as tariffs, which result in counter-barriers, escalating import costs, and hence the cost of living.
An economic conflict between the United States (US) and China began early in 2018, when President Donald Trump set trade barriers on China, claiming unfair commercial practices and intellectual property theft from the Asian giant. China took retaliatory action, imposing tariffs on multiple US goods, such as automobiles and soybeans. Tensions escalated until the two countries signed the US-China Phase One trade deal in January 2020. The agreement required structural reforms and other changes to China’s economic and trade regime and pretended to restore stability and trust between the two nations. However, the Coronavirus pandemic took the focus out of the conflict. Yet, it is worth mentioning that President Joe Biden, who took office after Trump, kept tariffs in place and even added some additional levies.
The return of Donald Trump to the White House as the 47th US President has sparked a fresh wave of tensions between the two countries. During the 2024 election campaign, Trump pledged to impose 60% tariffs on China once he returned to office, which he did on January 20, 2025. With Trump back, the US-China trade war is meant to resume where it was left, with tit-for-tat policies affecting the global economic landscape amid disruptions in global supply chains, resulting in a reduction in spending, particularly investment, and directly feeding into the Consumer Price Index inflation.
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