The U.S. economy added jobs at a slower pace than expected in January, as the Federal Reserve remains in a holding pattern for interest rate cuts as it evaluates the labor market and inflation data.
The Labor Department on Friday reported that employers added 143,000 jobs in January, below the estimate from LSEG economists.
The unemployment rate came in at 4%, lower than economists’ expectations.
The number of jobs added in the prior two months were both revised, with job creation in November revised up by 49,000 from a gain of 212,000 to 261,000; while December was revised up by 51,000 from a gain of 256,000 to 307,000. Taken together, 100,000 more jobs were created in those two months than previously reported.
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Private sector payrolls added 111,000 jobs in January, below the 141,000 estimated by LSEG economists.
Wage growth was stronger than expected, with average earnings growing by 0.5% from the prior month and 4.1% from a year ago. Those both top the LSEG economists’ estimates of 0.3% growth on a monthly basis and 3.8% year over year.
The manufacturing sector saw employment rise by a modest 3,000 jobs in January, which came in above economists’ expectations that the sector would shed 2,000 jobs for the month.
The health care industry added 43,700 jobs in January, driven by hiring at hospitals (+13,900), nursing and residential care facilities (+13,200) and home health care services (+10,600). The sector was below its 2024 average of 57,000 jobs per month.
Retail added 34,300 jobs last month with notable gains at general merchandise retailers (+31,200) and furniture and home furnishings retailers (+5,300), while electronics and appliance retailers saw a decline (-7,000). Overall, the retail sector had little net employment change in 2024.
The government added 32,000 jobs in January – a figure that was close to in line with its average monthly gain of 38,000 in 2024.
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Social assistance added 22,300 jobs, led by individual and family services (+20,100) with gains also occurring in community food and housing, emergency and other relief services (+4,400). The sector grew by an average of 20,000 jobs a month last year.
The mining, quarrying and oil and gas extraction industry lost 7,700 jobs in January, with losses concentrated in mining support activities. The sector experienced little net change in 2024.
The labor force participation rate was unchanged at 62.6% after accounting for the annual adjustments to population controls made by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
The number of people considered to be long-term unemployed, defined as being jobless for 27 weeks or more, was little changed in January at 1.4 million. The long-term unemployed accounted for 21.1% of all unemployed people.
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The number of workers employed part-time for economic reasons was little changed at 4.5 million. These workers would’ve preferred full-time work but were working part-time because their hours were reduced, or they could not find full-time jobs.
Multiple jobholders increased by 286,000 in January and represented 5.3% of the overall labor force, a level that has changed little over the last year.
January’s jobs report comes after the Federal Reserve opted against a fourth consecutive interest rate cut at its meeting last week amid uncertainty over inflation and the health of the labor market.
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Fed Chair Jerome Powell said at his post-meeting press conference that a “wide set of indicators suggest that conditions in the labor market are broadly in balance” and that while inflation remained somewhat elevated, the labor market was not a source of significant inflationary pressures.
“A lower-than-expected January payrolls number was more than offset by upward revisions to November and December’s totals and a downtick in the unemployment rate,” said Ellen Zentner, chief economic strategist at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management. “Those who’d hoped for a soft report that would nudge the Fed back into rate-cutting mode didn’t get it.”
Jeffrey Roach, chief economist for LPL Financial, said that the January jobs report “may be considered a Goldilocks report – not too hot and not too cold.”
“In general, labor demand last year was softer than originally reported but that trend temporarily reversed in November and December. An unemployment rate at 4% is considered very low, giving the Fed reason to keep the fed funds unchanged in the near term,” Roach added.
The Fed’s next meeting is scheduled for March 18-19, and markets reacted to the January jobs report by reinforcing expectations that the central bank will leave rates unchanged.
The probability of the benchmark federal funds rate remaining at its current target range of 4.25% to 4.5% rose to 91.5% on Friday, up from 84% a day ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
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