- Gold price oscillates in a range at the start of a new week amid mixed fundamental cues.
- Geopolitical risks continue to underpin the XAU/USD amid subdued US Dollar price action.
- The Fed’s hawkish stance backs elevated US bond yields and caps the pair’s gains.
Gold price (XAU/USD) struggles to capitalize on last week’s modest recovery from a one-month trough and oscillates in a range around the $2,630 region during the early European session on Monday. The US Dollar (USD) bulls remain on the defensive below a two-year high touched on Friday and turn out to be a key factor acting as a tailwind for the commodity. Apart from this, geopolitical risks stemming from the protracted Russia-Ukraine war and tensions in the Middle East further lend support to the safe-haven precious metal.
Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) hawkish signal, that it would slow the pace of rate cuts in 2025, remains supportive of elevated US Treasury bond yields. This, along with a generally positive tone around the equity markets, seems to cap gains for the non-yielding yellow metal. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying before positioning for any further appreciating move. Traders now look forward to the release of the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index for short-term impetus.
Gold price struggles to gain ground amid Fed’s hawkish signal and elevated US bond yields
- The US Dollar pulled back from a two-year high on Friday following the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, which pointed to signs of inflation moderation.
- The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that inflation in the US, as measured by the change in the PCE Price Index, edged higher to 2.4% on a yearly basis in November from 2.3% previous.
- Meanwhile, the core PCE Price Index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 2.8% during the reported period, matching October’s reading but arriving below the expectation of 2.9%.
- Furthermore, Personal Income decelerated sharply from 0.7% in October and grew 0.3% last month, while Consumer Spending rose 0.4% after a downwardly revised reading of 0.3% in October.
- Russian President Vladimir Putin has pledged retaliation after Ukraine staged a major drone attack on the city of Kazan, which damaged residential buildings and shut down the airport.
- Israeli forces bombed the so-called “safe zone” in southern Gaza, causing tents to go up in flames and killing at least seven Palestinians, taking the death toll over the past day to at least 50.
- The Federal Reserve last week signaled that it would slow the pace of rate cuts in 2025, lifting the benchmark US Treasury bond yield to its highest level in more than six months last week.
- Monday’s US economic docket features the release of the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index and might provide some impetus later during the early North American session.
Gold price technical setup warrants caution before positioning for additional near-term gains
From a technical perspective, acceptance above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent pullback from a one-month peak favors bullish traders. That said, negative oscillators on daily/4-hour charts warrant some caution before positioning for any further appreciating move. Hence, any subsequent move up might still be seen as a selling opportunity and seems limited.
Meanwhile, the 38.2% Fibo. level, around the $2,637 area, now seems to act as an immediate hurdle ahead of the $2,643-$2,647 congestion zone, which coincides with the downward sloping 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart. The latter should act as a key pivotal point, which if cleared decisively, should pave the way for a further appreciating move.
On the flip side, the $2,616-$2,615 region that is deemed as a pullback area, or the 23.6% Fibo. level could offer immediate support. This is followed by the $2,600 round-figure mark, below which the Gold price could retest the monthly swing low, around the $2,583 zone touched last week. Some follow-through selling will be seen as a fresh trigger for bears and set the stage for deeper losses in the near term.
Read the full article here
