Commerzbank Senior Economist Dr. Christoph Balz notes that US employment fell by 92,000 in February, far below expectations, with revisions also lowering prior months. He highlights possible distortions from a strike and cold weather. Balz expects the US Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged at upcoming meetings as it waits for clearer labor market and inflation signals.
Weak jobs data delays Fed action
“The US employment report was a big letdown in February, with 92,000 jobs lost. But some one-off factors, like a strike and the cold snap, might have played a role. That makes it harder to interpret the numbers.”
“In addition, revisions pushed data for earlier months down by a combined 69,000. The unemployment rate is now 4.4% after 4.3%. Average hourly earnings rose by 0.4% in February compared with the previous month and by 3.8% compared with the previous year. In January, the year-on-year rate was 3.7%.”
“Today’s data is likely to trigger renewed concerns about the labor market at the US Federal Reserve. However, due to possible one-off factors and in view of the fluctuations in recent months, the Fed will interpret the figures with caution and wait for further reports before adjusting its assessments.”
“The unclear impact of the Iran war, especially on inflation, also argues in favor of a wait-and-see approach.”
“The last two meetings of the Powell era this month and at the end of April are likely to proceed without any interest rate changes. However, the Fed may soon face some difficult decisions in view of the downside risks in the labor market and increasing inflationary pressures.”
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
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