TD Securities’ Robert Both and Emma Lawrence note that stronger-than-expected Canadian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data support a brighter growth outlook but do not materially change their Bank of Canada (BoC) view. They highlight that Q2 GDP is tracking above BoC projections, yet still expect policy rates to remain unchanged through 2026 before a gradual hiking cycle begins in early 2027.
BoC seen on extended 2026 hold
“The Canadian growth outlook looks a little brighter after industry-level GDP rose by 0.3% m/m in May (0.34% unrounded) for an upside surprise against expectations (TD & market) for a 0.2% increase and flash estimates for GDP…
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