TD Securities’ Robert Both expects Canadian headline CPI to rise to 2.9% year-on-year in July, driven by higher gasoline and food prices, while ex. food/energy components stay muted. Core measures CPI-trim and CPI-median are projected around 1.85%, below Bank of Canada forecasts, reinforcing a benign underlying inflation backdrop and supporting continued focus on core rather than Oil-driven headline moves.
Headline and core inflation outlook
“Headline CPI is forecast to firm by 0.1pp to 2.9% y/y in July as prices rise 0.4% m/m, fueled by higher gasoline prices after their sharp pullback in June.”
“The July CPI report should also confirm another…
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