TD Securities strategists expect Canada’s July Jobs Report to confirm ongoing labour market strength, with employment rising another 20k, matching consensus and extending the recovery of 2026 job losses. They see hiring intentions improving into Q3 and project the Unemployment Rate dipping to 6.4%, while wage growth slows to 3.4% year-on-year on a large base effect from last July.
Employment gains and softer wages
“We look for the labour market to build on recent strength with employment forecast to rise by another 20k in July, in line with the market consensus, after recovering most of the 2026 job losses over May/June.”
“Monthly hiring intentions have been trending higher into Q3, with the S&P Composite Employment indicator reaching its highest level since 2024Q4 in July.”
“Services could see a mild headwind from a partial unwind of recent strength in accommodation/food services, but payroll employment has been on a much stronger trajectory in recent months.”
“A 20k print would see the unemployment rate fall 0.1pp to 6.4% (market: 6.5%), while wage growth should slow by 0.3pp to 3.4% y/y on a large base effect from last July.”
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
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