Let’s cut to it: Gold’s been on a tear, and it has made a lot of investors feel real smart lately. But if you’re holding onto that shiny metal like it’s the only life raft in the ocean, you might want to double-check the horizon – because the tide might just be turning.
Gold prices have exploded in 2025, touching almost $3,500 an ounce like it was nothing. Why? Fear. The S&P 500 has been getting tossed around, down about 6% year-to-date, and every time things get sketchy – China tariffs, recession whispers, Fed drama – investors run to gold.
But here’s the thing no one’s saying out loud: gold may have run too far, too fast.
The Signal You Can’t Ignore
On April 22, something weird happened. The SPDR Gold ETF (GLD) – the go-to way to ride gold prices – saw one of its biggest volume dumps in years. We’re talking >35 million shares traded. That’s a lot of investors saying, “I’m out.”
Meanwhile, the S&P 500? It rallied. That kind of divergence doesn’t happen by accident. When people start bailing on gold and buying stocks at the same time, it’s usually the start of a new narrative.
Has This Gold Run Already Gone Too Far?
Let’s zoom out. Gold does have history of incredible runs. For example, in the legendary run between Sep 1978 and Jan 1980, gold prices increased almost four-fold! But that was during double-digit inflation and genuine economic chaos. Now? Gold is up more than 50% over the last 12 months, and has gained over $800 an ounce in just four months this year!
Meanwhile, the S&P is down, sure, but it’s not 2008 out there. Unemployment isn’t spiking, the Fed isn’t panicking, and the economy – despite some scars – isn’t falling apart yet.
So ask yourself: does this gold run make sense in this environment?
Watch the Gold Stocks, Not Just the Metal
Want a real pulse on where gold is headed? Watch the miners.
Barrick Gold and Newmont have both started to slip lately. That’s telling. These companies thrive when gold’s run is healthy and has legs. When their stocks lag – even as gold hovers near record highs – it smells like caution.
What the Smart Money’s Watching
Some analysts are still pounding the table, calling for $4,000 gold by next year. But others are warning that gold has become too crowded, too fast. And here’s a big one: central banks have been huge gold buyers recently, but if inflation cools or geopolitical tensions ease, that demand could dry up.
Then there’s this: gold isn’t alone in looking toppy. Other commodities – like silver – have started to stall too. That’s often an early clue that the commodity rally is losing steam.
So what?
We’re not here to call the exact top. But the signs are piling up:
- Historic price surge
- Huge volume dump in GLD
- Gold stocks losing steam
Put it all together and it smells a lot like a “maybe it is time I booked my gold profits.” Gold has had its moment. But if you’re betting your whole defensive playbook on it, you’re not protecting yourself – you’re just crowd-surfing a hype cycle.
That’s why Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio doesn’t chase trends. It is designed to sidestep big swings like this and, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming the S&P 500 over the last 4-year period. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.
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