Gold buying remains unabated; fresh all-time high and counting ahead of Fed’s Powell

• Gold draws support from a combination of factors and touches a fresh all-time high on Tuesday.
• The Fed’s dovish outlook capped the recent USD recovery and offers support to the commodity.
• Rising geopolitical tensions turn out to be another factor underpinning the safe-haven XAU/USD.

Gold (XAU/USD) touches a fresh all-time peak during the first half of the European session on Tuesday and looks to build on its recent well-established uptrend witnessed over the past month or so amid a supportive fundamental backdrop. The US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) dovish outlook, signaling two more rate cuts by the end of this year, continues to underpin the non-yielding yellow metal. Apart from this, geopolitical risks stemming from the intensifying Russia-Ukraine war and conflicts in the Middle East turn out to be another factor benefiting the bullion’s safe-haven status.

The aforementioned factors, to a larger extent, overshadow the emergence of some US Dollar (USD) dip-buying following the previous day’s pullback from an over one-week high. Even the prevalent risk-on environment does little to dent the bullish sentiment surrounding the Gold price. This, in turn, validates the positive outlook and backs the case for additional gains. That said, extremely overstretched conditions on short-term charts might hold back the XAU/USD bulls from placing aggressive bets ahead of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech later during the North American session.  

Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold bulls shrug off USD uptick amid dovish Fed expectations

• Firming expectations of further interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve and persistent safe-haven demand, fueled by rising geopolitical tensions, lifted the Gold price to a fresh all-time peak during the Asian session on Tuesday.
• Fed Chair Jerome Powell said last Wednesday that the move to lower interest rates was a risk management cut and added that he doesn’t feel the need to move quickly on rates as risks to inflation remain tilted to the upside.
• Traders, however, believe that interest rates will drop much faster than the Fed is projecting and are betting on the possibility that the short-term rate, currently in the 4.00%-4.25% range, will fall under 3% by the end of 2026.
• This, in turn, led to the overnight pullback in the US Dollar (USD) from an over one-week high, which, along with safe-haven demand fueled by rising geopolitical tensions, might continue to underpin the safe-haven commodity.
• Despite recent diplomatic efforts to find ways to end the more than three-year war, fighting has intensified in recent months. In fact, Russia and Ukraine accused each other of deadly drone strikes on civilian areas on Monday.
• Meanwhile, NATO countries have accused Russia of violating the airspace of alliance members Estonia, Poland, and Romania. Russia, however, rejected the claims and blamed the European powers for levying baseless accusations.
• Hamas escalated its attacks and launched multiple rockets on Israel amid the intensifying attacks by the Israeli Defense Forces in Gaza. Meanwhile, the Trump administration has cautioned Israel against annexing the West Bank.
• Traders now look forward to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s scheduled speech later during the North American session, which might influence the USD price dynamics and provide short-term impetuses to the XAU/USD pair.

Gold seems poised to appreciate further; extremely overbought daily RSI warrants some caution

From a technical perspective, the overnight breakout and close above the $3,700 mark could be seen as a fresh trigger for bullish traders. Moreover, the recent move up remains unaffected by the overbought Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart. This, in turn, backs the case for a further near-term appreciating move for the Gold price, suggesting that any corrective slide could be seen as a buying opportunity.

Meanwhile, the $3,726-3,725 region now seems to protect the immediate downside ahead of the $3,700 round figure. The next relevant support is pegged near the $3,686-3,685 zone, which, if broken, might prompt some technical selling and drag the Gold price to the $3,651-3,650 area. A convincing break below the latter would point to a possible bullish exhaustion and pave the way for a deeper corrective decline.