US Dollar (USD) jumped overnight in response to hotter-than-expected PPI while Treasury Secretary Bessent made clarification on his earlier comments with regards to rate cuts. DXY was last at 97.88 levels, OCBC’s FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.
Markets remain highly sensitive to data surprises
“In another interview with Fox TV overnight, he said that he “didn’t tell the Fed what to do” and that ‘to get to a neutral rate, that would take approximately 150bp cut’. Elsewhere, much hotter PPI caught markets by surprise and rate cut bet was pared slightly.”
“On Fedspeaks, Musalem said it’s too early for him to decide on whether to lower rates at Sep FOMC. Barkin said he sensed improvement on consumer spending in July. Nevertheless, markets still price in 92% chance of Sep cut. Later today brings IP, retail sales, empire manufacturing, Uni of Michigan sentiment, inflation expectations data.”
“FX markets remain highly sensitive to data surprises. Hotter print may see USD retrace its earlier declines. Daily momentum is mild bearish while RSI was flat. 2-way trades but favour selling rallies. Resistance at 98.40 levels (21 DMA), 99.30 (100 DMA). Support at 97.60, 97.20 levels.”
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