President Donald Trump’s second presidential term has reached its 100-day post-inauguration milestone, and the stock market’s performance ranks as the second-worst in the last 80 years.
The S&P 500 Index declined by 7.9% from Inauguration Day to April 25, the end of the last full week before the 100-day mark, according to an analysis by CFRA. In comparison, during Trump’s first term in 2016, the S&P 500 was up 5% in his first 100 days in office.
That decline is the second-largest decline in the first 100 days of a presidential term, trailing only the stock slide seen at the beginning of President Richard Nixon’s second term in 1972, when the S&P 500 was down 9.9%.
Since 1944, seven presidential terms have started with the S&P 500 declining in the first 100 days, while 14 presidential terms saw increases during those periods. Trump’s second term is the first presidential term to see the market decline during the first 100 days since President George W. Bush’s second term in 2004, when the S&P 500 was down 1.6%.
PRESIDENT TRUMP’S FIRST 100 DAYS IN OFFICE: HOW IS INFLATION DOING?
The presidential administration under which the S&P 500 performed the best was 1944, when Franklin D. Roosevelt, who died on April 12 of that year, and his successor, Harry Truman, were in office. The S&P 500 was up 10.4% in that 100-day period.
Other notable gains in the first 100 days of a presidential term occurred under John F. Kennedy (+8.9%), Joe Biden (+8.5%) and Barack Obama (+8.4%).
The only Republican president since World War II to see a positive performance in the S&P 500 during both of their presidential terms was Ronald Reagan, who saw gains of 0.9% and 5% in the first 100 days of his first and second terms, respectively.
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE PLUNGED TO A 5-YEAR LOW IN APRIL
CFRA’s report noted “investors are more likely concerned with the next 100 days and whether the results for the first or next 100 days were predictive of full-year returns.”
“Again since WWII, the S&P 500 rose an average of 3.2% during the next 100 days and was higher 65% of the time,” wrote CFRA chief investment strategist Sam Stovall. He noted that “an above-average return in the first 100 days resulted in an average full-year gain of 21.1%,” but that, conversely, a “below-average first 100 days saw a full-year decline of 5.5%.”
For the next 100 days, an above-average decline resulted in a 22% full-year gain, while a below-average return saw an average decline of 3.7%, he added.
TARIFF-INDUCED PRICE HIKES, TRADE WORRIES HIGHLIGHTED IN FED’S BEIGE BOOK
Financial markets have experienced elevated levels of volatility amid Trump’s efforts to reset global trade flows to more favorable terms for the U.S. by imposing sweeping tariffs on trading partners.
Uncertainty about the duration of tariffs and the potential for further escalation, as well as the possibility of the disruption prompting a recession, have continued to weigh on markets as the administration starts negotiations with other countries.
In his speech to a joint session of Congress in early March, Trump said the disruption caused by his tariffs will be worth it to the U.S. economy in the long run.
“Tariffs are about making America rich again and making America great again. And it’s happening, and it will happen rather quickly,” Trump said. “There will be a little disturbance, but we’re OK with that. It won’t be much.”
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