AUD/USD inches lower after registering over 1% gains in the previous day, trading around 0.7020 during the Asian hours on Friday. The pair remains subdued following the release of disappointing Chinese Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data.
China’s NBS Manufacturing PMI fell into contraction territory at 49.2 in July, down from 50.3 prior and below market estimates of 50.0. Similarly, the Non-Manufacturing PMI dipped to 49.0 against expectations of a 50.0 reading, underscoring ongoing weakness in Australia’s largest trading partner.
Aussie inflation cools further, easing pressure on the RBA
Analysts at Deutsche Bank highlight that the latest data showed a further easing in price pressures, with “annual inflation moderated from +4.0% to +3.8% yoy.” They note that this incremental slowdown in headline inflation reinforces the perception that underlying price momentum is gradually cooling, helping to temper expectations for additional near-term tightening by the RBA and contributing to a softer tone in the Aussie Dollar.
The US Dollar (USD) holds firm despite an easing of global risk aversion brought on by positive diplomatic developments. Tensions in the Middle East have shown signs of cooling as negotiations between the US and Iran progress toward restoring stability in the Strait of Hormuz.
Further lifting market sentiment, US President Donald Trump announced a historic agreement aimed at the disarmament of Hamas and the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza, a deal reportedly confirmed by senior Hamas officials.
Fed pause extends as FOMC split underscores policy debate
Strategists at HSBC highlight that the US Federal Reserve “left interest rates unchanged for a fifth consecutive meeting, in line with expectations,” but stress that the “9-3 vote revealed a lively debate within the FOMC,” underscoring the extent of internal divergence over the appropriate policy path.
Economic Indicator
NBS Manufacturing PMI
The NBS Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released by the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing (CFLP) and China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), is a leading indicator gauging business activity in China’s manufacturing sector. The data is derived from surveys of senior executives at manufacturing companies. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), industrial production, employment and inflation. The index varies between 0 and 100, with levels of 50.0 signaling no change over the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the Renminbi (CNY). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity among goods producers is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for CNY.
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