Nasdaq is scheduled to report its Q1 2025 earnings on Thursday, April 24, 2025. Revenue is expected to rise by approximately 10% year-over-year to $1.23 billion, with earnings projected at about $0.77 per share, an increase of roughly $0.14 from the same period last year. Several factors have contributed to the company’s strong performance in recent quarters, including rising demand for Nasdaq’s technology and data solutions, a growing share of recurring and software-based revenue due to a shift toward subscription models, and increased interest in Nasdaq-linked index products.
The company currently holds a market capitalization of $42 billion. Over the past twelve months, it generated $7.4 billion in revenue, achieved $1.9 billion in operating profits, and posted net income of $1.1 billion. For investors seeking upside with lower volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High-Quality portfolio may offer a compelling alternative—it has outperformed the S&P 500 and delivered returns of over 91% since inception.
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Nasdaq’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some insights on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 recorded earnings instances over the last five years, with 10 positive and 10 negative one-day (1D) returns. In essence, positive 1D returns occurred 50% of the time.
- This 50% rate remains unchanged when considering only the last three years of data.
- The median of the 10 positive returns is 2.8%, while the median of the 10 negative returns stands at -2.0%.
Further data on observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) post-earnings returns are presented in the table below.
Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns
A potentially lower-risk strategy (though it depends on correlation strength) involves assessing the relationship between short- and medium-term post-earnings returns, identifying the strongest correlation, and placing a trade accordingly. For instance, if there is strong correlation between 1D and 5D returns, a trader might go “long” for the next 5 days following a positive 1D return. Below is correlation data based on both 5-year and 3-year historical observations. The term 1D_5D refers to the correlation between one-day post-earnings returns and the subsequent 5-day returns.
Discover more about the Trefis RV strategy, which has outperformed its all-cap benchmark (comprising the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000), delivering strong returns for investors. Additionally, for those seeking smoother performance than an individual stock like Nasdaq, the High Quality portfolio may be appealing, having exceeded S&P returns and delivered over 91% gains since inception.
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