US Dollar (USD) could continue to decline vs Japanese Yen (JPY), but it remains to be seen if it has enough momentum to reach 146.05. In the longer run, USD is expected to continue to decline; the next technical target is at 146.05, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
USD is expected to continue to decline
24-HOUR VIEW: “USD fell to a low of 146.94 last Friday and then rebounded to close largely unchanged at 148.03 (+0.05). In early Asian trade yesterday, when USD was at 147.70, we indicated that ‘slowing downward momentum suggests any decline is unlikely to reach 147.00 again.’ We underestimated the momentum as USD breached both the support levels and plunged to 146.61. Today, USD could continue to decline, but it remains to be seen if it has enough momentum to reach 146.05. To sustain the momentum, USD must remain below 147.60 (there is another resistance at 147.15).”
1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “Last Friday, USD fell and exceeded our technical target at 147.00. Yesterday, 10 Mar, when USD was at 147.70, we highlighted the following: ‘While further USD weakness is not ruled out, the 147.00 level is acting as a kind of ‘low water mark’ now, meaning USD would need remain below this level before further declines are likely.’ USD then plummeted to 146.61, closing at 147.26 (-0.52%). Although USD did not close below 147.00, the sharp drop below 147.00 has led to an increase in momentum. From here, we continue to expect USD to weaken, with the next technical target at 146.05. We will maintain our view as long as 148.25 (‘strong resistance’ level was at 148.80 yesterday) is not breached.”
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