Instead of continuing to rally, US Dollar (USD) is more likely to consolidate between 7.1920 and 7.2150 against Chinese Yuan (CNH). In the longer run, sharp rally appears excessive, but there is a chance for USD to rise further to 7.2250, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
Chance for USD to rise further to 7.2250
24-HOUR VIEW: “We expected USD to ‘trade in a range of 7.1700/7.1835’ yesterday. The subsequent price movements did not turn out as we expected. Rather than trading in a range, USD rallied and closed higher by 0.44% (7.2129), its largest one-day gain in about four months. The sharp rally appears excessive, and instead of continuing to rally, USD is more likely to consolidate today, probably between 7.1920 and 7.2140.”
1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “Two days ago (29 Jul, spot at 7.1820), we indicated that ‘upward momentum is building, but for a continued advance, USD must first close above 7.1910.’ Yesterday, in a sudden move, USD surged to a high of 7.2140 before closing on a strong note at 7.2129 (0.44%). The sharp rally appears to be excessive, but as long as USD holds above 7.1750 (‘strong support’ level previously at 7.1660), there is a chance for it to rise further to 7.2250.”
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