US S&P Global PMIs set to highlight worsening services and manufacturing sectors in April

The S&P Global advanced PMIs for April are seen worsening further.
Markets expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates in June by 25 bps.
EUR/USD keeps the trade in the area of three-year highs past 1.1500.

This Wednesday, S&P Global will unveil its preliminary April Purchasing Managers’ Indices (PMIs) for the United States, drawing on surveys of senior private sector executives to offer an early read on economic momentum.

The report comprises three measures — the Manufacturing PMI, the Services PMI and the Composite PMI (a weighted blend of the two) — each calibrated so that readings above 50 denote expansion and those below 50 signal contraction. Published well ahead of many official statistics, these monthly snapshots assess everything from output and export trends to capacity utilization, employment and inventory levels, providing one of the first indicators of the economy’s direction.

In March, the Composite PMI came in at 53.5, improving from the previous month’s 51.6 reading. According to Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, “The strong start to the year for US manufacturers has faltered in March. A combination of improved optimism surrounding the new administration and the need to front-run tariffs had buoyed the goods-producing sector in the first two months of the year, but cracks are now starting to appear. Production fell for the first time in three months in March, and order books are becoming increasingly depleted.”

What can we expect from the next S&P Global PMI report?

Investors are bracing for a modest pullback in April’s flash Manufacturing PMI, expected to slip from 50.2 to 49.4, while the Services PMI is forecast to ease from 54.4 to 52.8.

Although a slight downturn in factory output may not alarm markets, any resilience — or rebound — above the 50 threshold could soothe lingering growth concerns, especially if service sector momentum holds firm.

Investors will be zeroing in on the PMIs’ granular inflation and employment gauges. In his latest comments, Fed Chair Jerome Powell underscored the Fed’s deliberate approach to restarting its easing cycle, warning that anchoring consumer price expectations remains paramount amid mounting uncertainty over President Trump’s tariff crusade.

A marked surprise in the services PMI — paired with manufacturing’s return to expansion — would likely give the US Dollar a boost. Meanwhile, evidence of rising input costs in services alongside robust job gains would cement bets on a “higher‑for‑longer” Fed. Conversely, signs of easing price pressures and lackluster private sector hiring could rekindle hopes for fresh monetary relief — and weigh on the Greenback.

When will the March flash US S&P Global PMIs be released, and how could they affect EUR/USD?

The S&P Global Manufacturing, Services and Composite PMIs report will be released on Wednesday at 13:45 GMT and is expected to show US business activity extending the loss of momentum observed since the turn of the year.

Ahead of Wednesday’s PMI flash readings, Pablo Piovano, Senior Analyst at FXStreet warns that a bullish turn in EUR/USD could see spot challenge its YTD peak of 1.1572 (April 21), ahead of the October 2021 high at 1.1692 (October 28), and the September 2021 top at 1.1909 (September 3).

Conversely, Piovano notes that occasional bearish moves should not meet any support of relevance until the critical 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.0762, which reinforces the weekly trough at 1.0732 (March 27).

“While above the 200-day SMA, the pair’s bullish stance should remain unchanged”, Piovano adds.

Technical indicators still paint a constructive picture, although they warn of a potential correction in the pipeline: While the Average Directional Index (ADX) surpasses the 51 level, indicative of a strong trend, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) well in the overbought region above 75 hints at the idea that a probable “technical correction” may be in the offing, Piovano concludes.

Fed FAQs

Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.

The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.

In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.

Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.

Economic Indicator

S&P Global Manufacturing PMI

The S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis, is a leading indicator gauging business activity in the US manufacturing sector. The data is derived from surveys of senior executives at private-sector companies from the manufacturing sector. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), industrial production, employment and inflation. A reading above 50 indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the US Dollar (USD). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity in the manufacturing sector is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for USD.