President Donald Trump’s treatment of US allies is causing some to question their commitment to the US-made F-35, presenting a golden opportunity for European defense companies.
One European jet maker is already trying to capitalize, publicly trying to get wavering countries to buy its jets instead.
Eric Trappier, CEO of France’s Dassault Aviation, said on Sunday that his company was ready for US allies unsure about buying the American jet to adopt its Rafale fighter.
He told French newspaper Le Journal du Dimanche that, as long as France’s government approved the move, Dassault would be ready to provide its services.
If relationships between the US and its allies deteriorate further, European defense companies could be in a strong position to seize the opportunity.
Richard Aboulafia, an aviation expert and the managing director of US consulting firm AeroDynamic Advisory, told Business Insider that, amid this tension, “Obviously, the one player that wins big are the European firms that can make an argument to purchase on the basis of national sovereignty.”
When it comes to European-made jets, “none of these planes are as good as the F-35,” he said, but added that: “If you’re Denmark and you’re looking at a confrontation in Greenland and you say, ‘Wow, the F-35 really does give us elaborate capabilities — unless we can’t use it.'”
A Europe boost and US blow
Trump has thrown a wrench in long-standing relationships with European powers, by criticizing defense spending and the NATO alliance in general, while also threatening to annex a European territory and excluding European allies from peace talks over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Some nations are now questioning their commitment to the F-35 — a leading product for the US defense industry that, as a program, is expected to cost more than $2 trillion.
Part of this is down to worries about the future of US weaponry, as countries that buy American weapons must rely on the US manufacturer for parts and services.
Allies turning away from the F-35 would be a big blow to the US defense industry: The F-35 is the West’s most advanced jet and is a symbol of US defense strength.
But it’s also run years late and billions over budget.
Losing international sales would exacerbate the program’s difficulties. Around 35% of Lockheed Martin’s F-35 deliveries last year were to the international market, and the company says the program contributes around $72 billion annually to the US economy, and supports 275,000 US jobs.
The US’ loss is Europe’s gain
This loss could give a major boost to European manufacturers.
European defense spending is growing at a faster rate than the US, with many countries needing to replace their arsenals as they give weaponry to Ukraine.
European defense stocks are also soaring, as countries increase their military spending.
Even so, many have struggled with a shortage of manufacturing capability which has left them unable to produce enough weaponry and ammunition, even if they’re willing to spend more.
Trump’s approach could push Europe faster toward what many warfare experts and European leaders identify as a tipping point: countries placing large enough orders for the defense industry to feel confident enough to massively boost production.
For items as large and complex as fighter jets, this scaling up would still take years.
European leaders are urging the purchasing of European weapons. Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, said this month that “we must buy more European” weapons, and “that means creating an EU-wide market for defense equipment.”
Seizing the opportunity
Trappier’s comments about countries adopting the Rafale fighter jet came as many nations have publicly voiced their uncertainty over plans to move forward with the F-35.
Canada’s defense minister said his country was reviewing its contract with Lockheed Martin for F-35s and looking at “other alternatives,” while Rasmus Jarlov, chairman of Denmark’s parliamentary defense committee, said he regrets choosing the F-35 for his country.
Among other things, Jarlov said he did not believe the Pentagon’s denial of rumors the jets could have a “kill switch” allowing the US to remotely disable them.
Portugal’s defense minister this month said his country was unsure about its plans to transition to the F-35s — a deal anticipated to be worth $6 billion — citing the US’s posture toward NATO and its allies.
Trappier said he wanted to offer Portugal the jet, adding that the country hadn’t contacted France yet but that a request could come in the next few weeks or months.
He also said that Dassault’s Rafale production had increased from one jet a month in 2020 to more than two a month this year. Trappier said that would grow to three a month in 2026, and four from 2028-2029.
The company was looking at how to bring that up to five a month, he added, but he didn’t give a timeline.
A major shortfall
Despite its growth, it’s unclear how much the Rafale could make up for any shortfall left by countries canceling or deciding against F-35 orders.
Lockheed Martin produces more than 150 F-35s a year. Even if Dassault makes three a month that would still only be 36 jets.
Mark Cancian, a defense expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told BI that the “production rate will be an issue” if allies want to heavily turn to Rafales.
There are similar issues with other European aircraft, like the Swedish-made Gripen and the Eurofighter Typhoon, manufactured by a consortium of Airbus Defense and Space, BAE Systems, and Leonardo.
Many countries still seem committed to their F-35s: A spokesperson for The Netherlands’ defense ministry told BI that “there is no reason to assume that the good cooperation with the US in the F-35 program will change or stop” and described the F-35 as a joint effort, a jet “developed, deployed and maintained as a common platform based on a strong partnership with the US and other countries around the world.”
Germany and the UK have also said they remain committed.
F-35s are considered among the world’s most advanced jets, and changing jet type would create additional work that could delay readiness at a time when Europe is increasingly worried about threats from Russia.
Even so, there are signs that many countries are questioning their long-term dependency on US tech and weaponry.
The prime minister of Sweden, which doesn’t operate F-35s, said this month that he doesn’t view US weaponry as a security threat, but said Sweden and Europe “would do well from being a little less dependent on the US defense industry.”
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