Software stock Oracle (ORCL) was last seen down 6.5% at $151.07, extending a pullback that started in mid-February. The stock is still up 34.7% year-over-year, however, and familiar support at the $152 region could step up ahead of the company’s fiscal third-quarter earnings report. Ahead of the event, the stock is within striking distance of a historically bullish trendline.
Per Schaeffer’s Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, ORCL has pulled back to its 200-day moving average. Specifically, the stock is within 0.75 of the trendline’s average true range’s (ATR), or 20-day ATR, for the first time in at least eight of the past 10 trading days, after spending at least 75% of the last six months above it. Oracle stock has seen three similar signals over the past three years, after which it was higher one month later two of those times, with an average 5.1% gain.
Oracle has a rather upbeat post-earnings history. The stock finished higher after three of its four reports in 2024, including an 11.7% pop after the same reporting period a year ago. Investors will be watching this one to gauge how the company faring compared to its artificial intelligence (AI) competitors, especially after enhancing its capabilities this quarter.
Options traders have been betting more bearishly lately. This is per the security’s 10-day put/call volume ratio of 0.77 at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) that ranks in the 93rd percentile of its annual range. In other words, bearish bets are at their most popular compared to the last 12 months.
Whatever the direction, options are a preferred route. The equity’s Schaeffer’s Volatility Scorecard (SVS) sits at a 94 out of 100, meaning ORCL has exceeded option traders’ volatility expectations during the past year.
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