- The Pound Sterling corrects to 1.3550 against the US Dollar amid uncertainty over the US economic outlook.
- Fed’s Kashkari warns of stagflation risks under the leadership of US President Trump.
- Traders pare BoE dovish bets on a slew of positive UK economic data.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) corrects to near 1.3550 against the US Dollar (USD) in Tuesday’s European session from the three-year high around 1.3600 posted the previous day. The GBP/USD pair drops as the US Dollar rebounds, while the outlook of the US Dollar is still fragile as investors struggle to predict how bilateral deals by the United States (US) with its trading partners will shape its economic outlook.
At the time of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, jumps to near 99.35 after attracting bids near the monthly low of 98.70.
Federal Reserve (Fed) officials have predicted that new economic policies by US President Donald Trump will prompt stagflation risks in the economy, and any monetary policy adjustment would be inappropriate until the scale of increase in inflation and weakness in economic growth can be anticipated.
During European trading hours, Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari said, “Until there is more clarity on the path for tariffs, their impact on prices and economic activity, he will support holding interest rates steady.” Kashkari also warned of elevated uncertainty due to the fallout of tariffs by Washington. “Uncertainty is something that is top of the mind for the Fed and US businesses, and we’re trying to navigate where inflation and the labor market are going,” Kashkari said. He affirmed, “There’s no question that the shock of tariffs is stagflationary.”
Another reason behind weakness in the US Dollar is uncertainty over Washington’s trade discussions with Japan, China, and the European Union (EU). Over the weekend, US President Trump extended the deadline for 50% tariffs on the EU to July 9 from June 1 after European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen assured that the continent will advance trade negotiations quickly and urged for some time to reach a good deal.
On the economic front, investors await the US Durable Goods Orders data for April, which will be published at 12:30 GMT. The cost of fresh orders for Durable Goods is expected to have declined by 7.9% after a robust increase of 9.2% in March.
Daily digest market movers: Pound Sterling trades higher against majority of its peers
- The Pound Sterling reflects some strength against most of its major peers on Tuesday, except the US Dollar, as traders become increasingly confident that the monetary expansion cycle by the Bank of England (BoE) would be moderate than what the central bank guided in its policy announcement earlier this month.
- According to a report from Reuters, the futures market shows traders see borrowing rates falling by around 38 basis points (bps) by the end of this year, indicating one 25 bps interest rate cut and a roughly 50% odds of a second.
- Major triggers behind the increase in traders’ confidence towards a moderate policy-easing stance are robust United Kingdom (UK) Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, hotter-than-projected Consumer Price Index (CPI), and upbeat Retail Sales data for April.
- This month, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that the economy grew at a robust pace of 0.7% in the first quarter of the year, the headline CPI accelerated at a faster pace to 3.5% on year, and the Retail Sales expanded strongly by 1.2% on month.
- In the policy meeting earlier this month, the BoE reduced borrowing rates by 25 bps to 4.25% with a 7-2 vote split and guided a “gradual and careful” interest rate cut approach. BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill was one of the two policymakers who voted for leaving interest rates at their current levels. Pill expressed confidence in a speech at Barclays in London last week that the “underlying disinflation process remains intact”. His vote in favor of holding interest rates steady was to indicate that the central bank needs to be cautious on rate cuts. “Quarterly pace of 25 bps cuts seen since last summer is too rapid given the inflation outlook,” Pill said and added, “Pace of quarterly cuts too rapid given the balance of risks to price stability we face.”
British Pound PRICE Today
The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.28% | 0.12% | 0.71% | 0.17% | 0.60% | 0.72% | 0.60% | |
| EUR | -0.28% | -0.18% | 0.39% | -0.11% | 0.24% | 0.35% | 0.29% | |
| GBP | -0.12% | 0.18% | 0.60% | 0.07% | 0.38% | 0.52% | 0.43% | |
| JPY | -0.71% | -0.39% | -0.60% | -0.50% | -0.10% | -0.05% | -0.10% | |
| CAD | -0.17% | 0.11% | -0.07% | 0.50% | 0.40% | 0.46% | 0.38% | |
| AUD | -0.60% | -0.24% | -0.38% | 0.10% | -0.40% | 0.02% | -0.06% | |
| NZD | -0.72% | -0.35% | -0.52% | 0.05% | -0.46% | -0.02% | -0.12% | |
| CHF | -0.60% | -0.29% | -0.43% | 0.10% | -0.38% | 0.06% | 0.12% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
Technical Analysis: Pound Sterling stays above all short-to-long-yerm EMAs
The Pound Sterling corrects to 1.3550 against the US Dollar on Tuesday after hitting a fresh three-year high the previous day. The near-term trend of the GBP/USD pair remains bullish as all short-to-long term Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) are sloping higher.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) rises to near 70.00, indicating a strong bullish momentum.
On the upside, the January 13, 2022, high of 1.3750 will be a key hurdle for the pair. Looking down, the April 28 high of 1.3445 will act as a major support area.
Economic Indicator
Consumer Price Index (YoY)
The United Kingdom (UK) Consumer Price Index (CPI), released by the Office for National Statistics on a monthly basis, is a measure of consumer price inflation – the rate at which the prices of goods and services bought by households rise or fall – produced to international standards. It is the inflation measure used in the government’s target. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Pound Sterling (GBP), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
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