Shares of oil and gas giant Antero Resources (AR) are attempting a bounce off four consecutive daily losses and last week’s 4.2% drop, last seen up 0.6% to trade at $37.59. The recent pullback comes after the company enjoyed a nearly 2% post-earnings pop after sharing an impressive fourth-quarter beat after the close on Feb. 12. Over the past 12 months, AR has charged 47% higher. What’s more, today’s attempt to push higher may have additional support, if past is any precedent.
Specifically, Antero Resources stock has come within one standard deviation of the 50-day moving average, a trendline that has historically sparked bullish returns. According to Schaeffer’s Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, AR has come within striking distance of this moving average after spending a prolonged period above it—defined as 80% of the past two months and eight of the last 10 trading days—five times in the past three years.
On average, AR gained 10.7% one month later and finished higher 60% of the time. A shift of this magnitude from the oil name’s current perch would put the shares at $41.61 — a more than two-year high.
It’s also worth noting that Antero Resources stock has consistently rewarded premium buyers in the past. The security’s Schaeffer’s Volatility Scorecard (SVS) score of 85 suggests it tends to deliver larger-than-expected moves relative to the options market’s low volatility expectations.
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