EUR/USD loses ground for the sixth consecutive day on Wednesday, trading below 1.1730 after peaking above 1.1800 last week. The pair struggles amid a moderate US Dollar (USD) rebound following the release of December’s Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Meeting minutes.
From a wider perspective, however, the common currency remains on track to a 14% yearly appreciation, boosted by the monetary policy divergence between the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Fed. Apart from that, US President Donald Trump’s erratic trade policies and the softening US economy have weighed heavily on the Greenback.
On Tuesday, the FOMC’s minutes confirmed the wide divergence among Fed policymakers. The monetary policy committee approved a 25 basis points rate cut by a lower margin than previously thought and conditioned further monetary policy easing to a steady decline of inflation, which casts doubts about the timing of the next interest rate cut. The US Dollar appreciated after the release of the minutes.
In the macroeconomic calendar, the release of the US Initial Jobless Claims will gather investors’ attention. Still, volumes are likely to remain at thin levels as most markets will be closed on Thursday amid the New Year festivities and with Japanese markets shut for the rest of the week.
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.12% | 0.21% | 0.08% | 0.06% | 0.16% | 0.40% | 0.16% | |
| EUR | -0.12% | 0.11% | -0.04% | -0.06% | 0.04% | 0.28% | 0.05% | |
| GBP | -0.21% | -0.11% | -0.13% | -0.15% | -0.05% | 0.18% | -0.04% | |
| JPY | -0.08% | 0.04% | 0.13% | -0.00% | 0.08% | 0.32% | 0.11% | |
| CAD | -0.06% | 0.06% | 0.15% | 0.00% | 0.09% | 0.30% | 0.11% | |
| AUD | -0.16% | -0.04% | 0.05% | -0.08% | -0.09% | 0.24% | 0.01% | |
| NZD | -0.40% | -0.28% | -0.18% | -0.32% | -0.30% | -0.24% | -0.22% | |
| CHF | -0.16% | -0.05% | 0.04% | -0.11% | -0.11% | -0.01% | 0.22% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Daily Digest Market Movers: Fed minutes push the US Dollar higher
- The Euro accelerated its pullback on Tuesday as the minutes of December’s Fed meeting cast doubt on the date of the next interest rate cut. The US Dollar, however, is set to close its worst yearly performance in the last eight years.
- The Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the USD against a basket of six currencies, has depreciated nearly 10% in the last 12 months.
- The minutes of the December 9-10 Fed Monetary Policy Meeting confirmed that the decision to cut rates by a quarter-point was approved by 9 votes against 3, the highest number of dissenters in the last six years. The divergence within the monetary policy committee reflects the challenging task of setting monetary policy to support a deteriorating labour market without boosting the already strong inflationary pressures.
- The minutes also revealed that most committee members judged that further rate cuts would likely be appropriate if inflation declined in line with the central bank’s projections, and signalled one rate cut in 2026 and another one in 2027.
- On Wednesday, the focus will turn to the weekly US Jobless Claims report, which is expected to show that first-time applications for unemployment benefits rose to 220K in the week of December 26 from 214K on the previous one.
Technical Analysis: EUR/USD dips below trendline support
The EUR/USD pair’s reversal from last week’s high at 1.1808 has extended below the trendline support, highlighting the pair’s growing bearish pressure. The 4-hour Relative Strength Index (RSI) is low, flirting with oversold levels, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator trends lower, reflecting a growing negative momentum.
Bears are now looking at the December 17 and 19 lows near 1.1700. Further down, the next targets are the December 4 high and December 11 low, around 1.1680, ahead of the December 8 and 9 lows in the area of 1.1615.
To the upside, the reverse trendline, now at 1.1760, is likely to pose a significant resistance in case of a bullish reversal. This level closes the path towards the December 16 and 24 highs near 1.1805 area, and the September 23 and 24 highs near 1.1820.
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022.
Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates.
When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system.
It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
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